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“Hamilton Sound” 2017 Padres Preview

 

The Padres were terrible in 2016, finishing at 68 and 94.  They figure to be terrible in 2017 as their scumbag GM (seriously, how is this guy still employed at such a high level?) has taken the long view, preferring to trade for prospects far off from producing for the major league club, but with high upside.  They have a long, long way to go before they will be able to compete with the Dodgers’ large payroll and savvy management and San Francisco’s perennial contender in the National League West.    For a team that pitched in Petco, it’s surprising to see they finished 23rd in ERA (4.43 team ERA) and that number does not figure to get any better with their opening day starter being Jhoulys Chacin, followed by a hot mess.  On the flip side, for a team that finished 20th in runs scored in ’16, there’s a lot to be interested in on the offensive side.  Though Wil Myers might be the only position player drafted in the top 100 in most leagues, there are some players that should pique your interest.

Projected Lineup

1. Travis Jankowski

2. Manuel Margot

3. Wil Myers

4. Yangervis Solarte

5. Ryan Schimpf

7. Austin Hedges

8. Luis Sardinas

Projected Rotation

When your rotation is headlined by Chacin, well, not good.

1. Jhoulys Chacin

2. Clayton Richard

3. Trevor Cahill

4. Jered Weaver

5. Luis Perdomo*

* Christian Friedrich has been ruled out for opening day with a lat strain.  No, you and I do not care about this.  In fact, I can’t really see caring anything about any of these starters

Closer

The award for most pubic hair taped to a relief pitcher’s face goes to Brandon

Brandon Maurer

Let’s talk the Padres bullpen, because it’s extremely interesting especially in deeper leagues that count holds.  There is Carter Capps with his cheater delivery.  Ignore the red circle as this is the best GIF I could find, focus more on the cheat-jump:

How is this legal?????

Everyone expects Capps to be the first in line if Maurer stumbles.  Aside from his spring struggles, I am not so sure with underrated relief ace Brad Hand in waiting and Brian Buchter being an interesting candidate to close.  Bottom line, if Maurer falters, I am not sure that Capps, despite his past dominance, is the clear-cut replacement.

Fantasy Outlook

Already covered Myers in our top-25 outfielders:

“Side note, make sure to check your eligibility rankings, Myers has OF eligibility in Yahoo but I am not sure about other formats yet.  Myers,  the top-tier prospect that was the centerpiece of the James Shields from the Rays to the Royals deal in 1984, surprised everyone last year to the tune of .259/28/28/99/94.  The thing is, Myers has the issue of dual risks: health and performance.  There are guys like Cargo that you know will perform if healthy and there are guys like Turner where you’re wondering if the high level of play you’re seeing is for real.  With Myers, it’s both.  Prior to last year, he hadn’t played 400 games.  Then you have to wonder about whether the steals are for real and whether the second-half swoon was indicative of a broader trend, not to mention the Padres lineup looks like hot garbage.  Too many questions for me.  If he does it again this year, it’s a different story, but for now, I would prefer to wait for one of the next three guys.  To be clear, if the choice were between Myers and Yelich, Bradley, or Piscotty, I would go Myers the majority of the time.  But that’s not the choice.  Based upon ADP data it’s going to be between Myers, Desmond, and J.D. Martinez.  No doubt Myers is third on that last for me.”

 

Margot and Renfroe too in our top-80:

“Monitor [Margot] in Spring Training.  If any of them ends up with a full-time job, they’ll move up significantly in my rankings.  Margot has wheels and a little pop and could put up high-single-digit homers with 35 steals season with an average in the .255-.265 range.  He just has to win the job out of spring-training.”

Margot has the job and I am interested.  Very interested.  Buying shares.

“Renfroe burst onto the scene in 36 at bats last year with the Padres, hitting 4 bombs with a .371 average.  Obviously those numbers won’t hold over the course of a full season, but dude has power.  Over the course of a full season, I could see a .245 average a handful of steals and an outside, outside shot at 30 home runs.  He strikes out too much and doesn’t walk.  So I could see the bottom falling out and him losing playing time in a crowded San Diego outfield.”

I like Renfroe, but please don’t think that he’s the next coming of Trout.  Temper expectations, draft accordingly, and you will be fine.

If either of these guys falter, don’t sleep on Alex Dickerson, who could provide some pop.

As to Jankowski; I feel like everyone is freaking out about the drop in steals last year, but with guys like Dyson (SEA) and Jankowski, the panic is not necessary.  Look at these projections and add 100 at-bats and you have Billy Hamilton lite, minus 200 picks.  As I said with Dyson, I hate the profile but love the discount.  Do not reach, but if you are struggling for steals Jankowski is a great option.  I think that Dickerson will steal some at-bats though, so do not look for anything beyond 450 at bats.

Chris Carter is not that useful at first base.  With second and third base eligibility, however, things get interesting.  That’s what I think we might have in Ryan Schimpf.  Let’s take a bit of a deeper look.  Guy hit flyballs last year at a historic rate — nearly 65% of his plate appearances.  Next three closest qualifying batters hit flyballs in around 48% of their plate appearances.  Those three were Carter, Todd Frazier, and Brian Dozier.  The average HR/FB of that crew was around 18.5%.  Schimpf’s HR/FB rate was about 17%.  Let us put two and two together here.  Even if he regresses on the flyball rate, he is going to hit flys at a rate commensurate with the league’s home run hitters AND ran a HR/FB rate lower than said players.  He could hit 35 homers.  No, I am not kidding.  Oh, he’ll also hit .240 if he’s lucky.  Like I said, Chris Carter with second and third base eligibility. Oh, also ran an OPS of .869 last year … that’s really good.

Very, very interested in Solarte as a backup option at both second and third.  Guy was a popular sleeper heading into ’16 and I do not think that much has changed.  At draft time he does not seem sexy, but a month into the season and a .280, 20 home run hitter starts to look a lot, lot better.

As far as the rotation goes, Petco is no longer a no-doubt streamer park as it once was where you could stream anyone safely with hopes of a quality start.  Petco is actually playing relatively neutral these days.  With that in mind, I am staying far, far away from this rotation.  I remember when Chacin had some hype, but unless he shows me something in his first couple starts, I have no interest.  At first glance Richard appears interesting with a 3.33 ERA last year, then you see his FIP over 4 and a K-rate around 5.  Ugh, that’s Charles Barkley tuuurible.  Weaver, Perdomo, and Cahill.  No. Just no.  What I really want to point out again, though, is that Petco is no longer the pitcher’s have it once was.  Stream with caution.

*** Author note.  The owner of this website Corey Roberts, has given me a great opportunity here, but he has challenged me on the park factors and Petco.  He believes that it remains a pitcher’s park, despite the above-referenced numbers and believes you all should stream away …  I think it is a risk to stream Padres starters, he doesn’t.  You decide.  Game on Corey, game on.  Also, McCullers … ***

Predition

70 wins and a last place finish in the NL West.

‘Till next time.

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Major League Fantasy Football 2017 League Openings

(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join Corey D Roberts, and Kyle Amore live on Sunday March 26th, 2017 from 7-9pm EST for episode #80 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. This week we will discuss players in the draft going for nice bargains.

Our guest this week is Steve Hamilton. Steve is a writer, and editor with majorleaguefantasysports.com focusing on baseball. His articles publish every Saturday.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join Corey D Roberts, and Kyle Amore live on Sunday April 2nd, 2017 from 7-9pm EST for episode #81 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. OPENING DAY SPECIAL! We will discuss some of the days events as well as relevant fantasy baseball updates.

Our guests this week are Ron Shandler, and Bilal Chaudry. Ron is FSTA Hall of Famer, and one of the pioneers of fantasy baseball. You can find his work at ronshandler.com. Bilal is a veteran owner in Major League Fantasy Baseball leagues and frequent radio guest.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

I have been playing fantasy baseball for about a decade over just about every format. Long time player, but first time writer. Hope to provide you helpful, informative, and entertaining insight throughout the season.

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