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“Hamilton Sound” Buys and Sells

Hello again.   Missed last week due to my son going on the DL with an ankle injury, with visits to several doctors and all.  Speaking of DL, anyone else getting crushed by DL visits this season?  Seems like more teams, with the 10-day-DL, are willing to put guys on said DL.  It is nice because you don’t have injured guys missing a couple of days before the team makes a decision to put that player on the DL, leaving a dead spot on your roster.  But daaaamn.  On one of my teams, I have lost Desmond, Nola, Richards, Bradley, Pederson, and a few smaller role players.  Make it stop fantasy gods.  Make. It.  Stop.  Okay, rant over.

Hope you listened to me two weeks ago when I told you to buy high on Thames and Zimmerman.  Hot fire these last two weeks.  Hot fire.  I do get some wrong though, I admit.  Even a broken clock is right once a day and all that; we keep military time in my house assholes. [Editor’s note.  I corrected Mr. Hamilton and was going to write “twice a day. Then I read further.  The asshole line forms thataway…]

Let’s get to our buy/sells for the week.

BUY

Lance McCullers (SP, Houston)

After posting identical 3.22 ERAs in ’15 and ’16, McCullers has started the season with a 4.34 ERA.  Thing is, it looks like the spike is caused by bad luck — a 22.2% HR/FB rate (after an 11.9% and 9.3% the past two years) along with an inflated .342 BABIP all while cutting his walk rate and maintaining his elite 11.17 K/9.  If the luck normalizes, McCullers is a top-25 pitcher.  Maybe his current owner does not believe.  A couple of elite starts though and the window to buy-low will close.  Advanced metrics believe and so do I.

J.J. Hoover (RP, Diamondbacks)

This is more about having a chance for saves than the man himself.  He has been inconsistent throughout his career, but is pitching well now and, well, Fernando Rodney sucks.  Jorge de la Rosa is somewhat of a threat here to vulture saves for the Diamondbacks, but my money is on Hoover taking the spot with de la Rosa being used against lefties.  Archie Bradley is the best pitcher in the bullpen and I thought it would be his job when Rodney inevitably imploded.  But I don’t think the D’backs are going to move him out of his Andrew Miller like role; he’s too valuable in that role now.  You get email updates from closermonkey.com and this wasn’t helpful.  I get it.

Scott Schebler (OF, Reds)

Cheap power is what I see from this Reds’ outfielder.  He’s hitting .203 this year, but with a .170 BABIP.  That normalizes and you have a .250 hitter with light speed an 20 homer power.  ZiPS sees 21 homers and seven steals for the rest of the year.  Not sexy, but pretty, pretty useful.

Chase Anderson (SP, Brewers)

I was going to label this column buy low, sell high, but I have a couple of buy highs sprinkled in here so that label wouldn’t make any sense.  Metrics and I agree on McCullers.  We disagree on Anderson.  ZiPS, Steamer, and Depth charts have Anderson reverting back to the mid-4 ERA guys he’s been.  I am not convinced.  The 3.8% HR/FB rate is going to go up, but he’s run a 1.13 ERA this year with a 2.56 FIP.  Ks are up and walks are down and he is throwing his fastball less, which is a good thing in this case.  I don’t see an Cy Young award coming, but I do see the potential for a 3.50 ERA and 8 k-rate this year.  I am writing this as of Friday 4/28 and he pitches tonight.  Let’s see what happens.  Gonna keep this buy here.  Watch him get lit up tonight.

Lucas Duda (1B, Mets)

Gotta be tough to be a Mets fan right now.  Their super-rotation has a case of the injury bug and their offense sucks.  Although Duda is on the DL, he’s started the year where he was in ’14 and ’15 as one of the better, most underrated hitters in the league.  He’s slashed .238/.360/.571 in 42 at-bats and should be coming off the DL soon.  People see he hit 30 home runs in ’14 and ’15 but seem to forget that was before the home-run surge.  40 is the new 30 and I think Duda will hit home runs at a 40-homer pace for the rest of the year.

Taylor Motter (SS, OF, Mariners)

THAT FLOW!

Guy has come seemingly out of nowhere, but he’s here now and shortstop eligible and much like Ron Jeremy, headed straight for the 2-hole (in a pretty solid Mariners offense).  He’s got 20-homer power and 15-steal speed.  As of this writing (on Friday night with the boy in a cast and my wife casting disparaging glares at me as I write about “fantasy baseballs”), he’s actually been slotted into the cleanup spot in the Mariners’ lineup.  Gimme, gimme.

SELL

Keon Broxton (OF, Brewers)

I was Snoop Dog high on Broxton coming into the year and boy do I look like an idiot.  I saw the exit velocity and speed and creamed my pants seemingly forgetting that it’s very hard to be a good major league hitter when you strike out a 39.4% clip, which is where he stands as of Thursday.  My bad, guys, my bad.  His hard hit rate has dipped, his plate discipline numbers are trending in the wrong direction, and I am not seeing too much reason for hope here.  Maybe one of your league-mates still believes and will pay up for Broxton and, if so, I would be selling.  Don’t drop him just yet, but pay attention to any offers that come your way.

Avisail Garcia (OF, White Sox)

I was a believer in 2013 when the hype surrounding Garcia was at its peak.  His current stretch is driven by a .462 BABIP.  ‘Nuff said.  Someone in your league still believing that hype from a couple years ago, sell away.

Till next time.

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Major League Fantasy Football 2017 League Openings

(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join Corey D Roberts, and Kyle Amore live on Sunday April 23rd, 2017 from 7-9pm EST for episode #84 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will be previewing the coming week’s key matchups and discussing key fantasy information.

Our guests this week are Andy Macuga and Ron Shandler. Andy is the head football and baseball coach for Borrego Springs H.S. in southern California. Ron is a FSTA Hall of Famer and a fantasy baseball pioneer.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join guest host Andrea Lamont, and Kyle Amore live on Sunday April 30th, 2017 from 7-9pm EST for episode #85 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will be previewing the coming week’s key matchups and discussing key fantasy information.

Our guest this week is Joe Iannone. Joe is a writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com, a 5 year veteran in MLFB leagues, and a really handsome guy. His articles publish every Sunday. He helps “Pick Your Spots” for the coming week.

You can find our shows on I-Tunes. Just search for Major League Fantasy Sports in the podcasts section. For Android users go to “Podcast Republic,” then download that app, and search for “Major League Fantasy Sports Show”

I have been playing fantasy baseball for about a decade over just about every format. Long time player, but first time writer. Hope to provide you helpful, informative, and entertaining insight throughout the season.

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