Connect with us

A.L. West

“On Bzdek” Don’t Be So Eager to Write Off Kyle Seager

Heading into the 2017 season, the Seattle Mariners’ Kyle Seager was coming off a career year where he posted career highs in batting average (.278), on-base percentage (.359), slugging percentage (.499), home runs (30), runs scored (89), and runs batted in (99). He’s also been a model of consistency to some degree. He’s had 20 or more home runs every season dating back to 2012 and his wOBA was .335 or higher dating back to 2013. All together, Seager ranked fifth among third basemen, yet could have been drafted several rounds after the likes of Machado, Arenado, Bryant, or Donaldson. He appeared to be a sound fantasy baseball investment back in March.

Well we’re 71 games into the 2017 season and Seager has just 7 home runs, meaning he’s on pace for about 13. This is not the reliable, yet affordable, player, I thought I was getting on draft day so I’ve decided to dive in and see if Seager’s power has been zapped or if he’s due for an improved second half.

Off the bat, Seager’s BB% and K% are in line with his historic ratios, around 10% and 16% respectively. So no red flags here.

Next, in order to hit for power you need to hit the ball hard and in the air. Seager’s hard hit percentage is 37.8%, a tick below 2016’s 38.7%, but nothing major. Furthermore, his soft hit percentage is 10.8% this year, down from 14.7% last year. By all accounts Seager is still hitting the ball hard. He’s also hitting the ball in the air: his fly ball percentage this year is 48.4%, up from 42.0% last year. Seager has maintained at least a 40% fly ball % every year of his career.

Seems like Seager is getting a bit unlucky and is due for some positive regression, which is backed up by the very low HR/FB rate of 6.6%. Last year, Seager posted a career high HR/FB of 14.6%, and the two seasons before that he had HR/FB rates of 12.1% and 12.9%. The MLB average HR/FB rate this season is 14% and has been trending upwards since 2014. During this time Seager has always been above the league average. For a visual, refer to the graph below, courtesy of Fangraphs.

Based on the above, I’m confident Seager’ power stroke will return for the second half. I think a conservative estimate would be 13 homers over the remaining 90 or so games, to get Seager to the 20 HR mark. If some things go his way he could certainly surpass this projection. If you own any shares of Seager, hang onto them, and if your third base situation is weak I would look into buying if the asking price is discounted for his slow start.


Is a New Exciting Fantasy Football Challenge what you’re looking for?

(Click on the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Show: Join guest host Andrea LaMont, and Kyle Amore live on Sunday June 18th, 2017 from 7-9pm EST for episode #91 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will the latest information in the world of fantasy baseball.

Our guest this week is Bilal Chaudry. Bilal is a commissioner, an occassional radio guest, and veteran owner in MLFS leagues.

I've been playing fantasy baseball for 14 years. I am also an auditor and CPA, where I analyze information on a daily basis. Combined, my passion for fantasy baseball and analytical background create a unique perspective for analyzing and writing about fantasy baseball.

Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Help Support Our Growth!

Major League Fantasy Baseball Show Episode #134, 8/26/2018 Host Brian Roach, Jr., Co-Host Cole Freel, Guest Bryan Luhrs

Major League Fantasy Baseball Show Episode #134, 8/26/2018 Host Brian Roach, Jr, Co-Host Cole Freel, Guest Bryan Luhrs

Radio Show Feed

Blog Authors

Ben WBen W

I am a recent college graduate from a small liberal arts school in Atlanta, GA. I'm a sports junkie and a diehard Atlanta sports fan.

Brian Roach, JrBrian Roach, Jr

Baseball fan through and through. Follows every team, every player and every transaction. Graduated Lasell College in 2013. Covers high sc...

Bryan LuhrsBryan Luhrs

Faith, Family and Fantasy Sports.These are the three words that best describe me. I am a faithful husband and father of 6 amazing children. I ...

Cole FreelCole Freel

Bachelors in English and History from Indiana University. Borderline-Obsessed Fantasy Baseball Writer who also dabbles in Football, Basketball...

Corey D RobertsCorey D Roberts

Owner and creator of Major League Fantasy Sports. We will provide you with the best tools to be successful in your leagues no matter if ...

Geordie EasterbrookGeordie Easterbrook

I’m a former pitcher from upstate New York, and a proud Demon Deacon. Go Deacs! I’ve been playing fantasy football and baseball for the be...

James WilkJames Wilk

I grew up a Dallas Cowboy's fan in Washington Redskins' country, but I currently reside in Florida. I have played fantasy sports since 1999,...

Jason BlackfordJason Blackford

General IT/Web/Backoffice resource for MLFS. After sitting down with Corey and getting a good look at the time and effort needed to maintain ...

Joe IannoneJoe Iannone

I'm an accountant and an amateur writer of fiction and sports commentary, mostly baseball. I've been a student of the game of baseball since...

John GozziJohn Gozzi

Intense sports lover . a writer who specializes in creative non- fiction almost always challenging the status quo. I've suffered but rema...

Josh HoukJosh Houk

Certified Sports Fanatic: Everything Cleveland sports and all the happenings around classic sports. Full time program manager in construc...

Kevin BzdekKevin Bzdek

I've been playing fantasy baseball for 14 years. I am also an auditor and CPA, where I analyze information on a daily basis. Combined, my pas...

Kyle AmoreKyle Amore

I'm a former collegiate and semi-pro baseball player. I underwent successful Tommy John Surgery in 2008, and can give a wide-range of tips on...

Mark RushMark Rush

Unrepentant Red Sox fan and all things Boston. Deflategate was a joke. Boston Latin School is awesome. Harvard and Johns Hopkins alma mater...

Matt BarkmanMatt Barkman

A/S/ the old school AOL instant messenger days...
Elementary Physical Education by day, chasing around my 1 and 2 year old boy...

Mike RiggallMike Riggall

I've been coaching lacrosse since 2002 and playing fantasy football since 2006. I've racked up several championships over the years includi...

Todd NevinTodd Nevin

A business analyst by day, pursuing all things baseball by night. My favorite day of the year is opening day and my favorite sound is the crac...

“Brook’s School” Quarterback & Tight End Starts for Week #7…

About 8 hours ago from Corey Roberts's Twitter via

Subscribe for Free

Help Support Our Growth!

More in A.L. West