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Time to Sell? The Michael Pineda Show Returns

Happy Dog Days and 4th of July Eve!  No kidding.  The Farmer’s Almanac says that the Dog Days begin with the heliacal rising of the Dog Star on 3 July.  What a deal.  Canada Day, 4th of July, Dog Days.  Go nuts.

Meanwhile, in Fantasyland, for those of you who drank the Kool-Aid, is it time to sell Michael Pineda?

He’s Baaack!

At the start of the season I was high on Pineda.  Sure, he’d have his ups and downs.  Sure he’ll never live up to his potential. But he will deliver Ks and wins.  You can look to overcome the damage he will do to your ERA and WHIP when you add other pitchers.  A fantasy team is a portfolio. It comes with risks.  Diversify.

Pineda paid dividends in April and May. Then June came and so did the old Pineda.  It would seem that it is time to sell before anyone notices.  His monthly and season stats appear below (courtesy of espn.com).

 

IP H R ER HR BB SO GB FB Pit BF Record ERA PIP BIP
June 33.2 44 24 20 6 8 25 67 52 566 152 2-2 5.35 17.0 4.6
May 31 24 14 12 6 8 29 45 41 485 125 3-1 3.48 15.6 4.0
April 28.2 26 12 10 5 4 37 36 38 437 115 3-1 3.14 15.5 4.1
Totals 93.1 94 50 42 17 20 91 148 131 1488 392 8-4 4.05 16.0 4.2

(PIP= Pitches/IP; BIP= Batters faced/IP)

He’s in a tailspin.  The Yankees need a pitching staff and without Tanaka or Pineda serving as dependable leaders, life will not get better without some serious trade deadline action.  Unfortunately, Pineda will not be serving as trade bait.

Everything we liked about Pineda in April started to crack in May and then went South in June.  With each month, he has faced more batters per inning, thrown more pitches per inning, given up more hits per inning and delivered progressively worse results.  Is it reasonable to call for patience and write this off as one bad month out of three so far?

Well,  the Yankees are not helping him with a 0.294 BABIP.  That is also the MLB average.  But, the team BABIP is 0.286 overall.  So, when Pineda’s on the mound, some of the folks behind him are mailing it in.  Overall, he is inducing GB at a rate (51.6%) above the MLB average (44.4%).  His 30.1% hard hit rate is below the MLB average (32.2).  Nonetheless, he is not delivering.

So, what’s going on? His K are down and his BB are up.  He did throw more pitches in June.  But, that is because he had an additional start.  What matters there is that he is taking a longer time to get through innings and to get batters out.  He is becoming progressively less efficient.

June is not an isolated month.  His first two months were solid. But, May was a bit worse than April and June was clearly worse than the prior two  months.  Of course, Pineda could right his ship.  But, given his track record, that is not the way to bet.

If you can find a true believer, who is having a better than average 4th of July, you might take advantage and trade Pineda to him for someone who won’t have you pulling your hair out for the rest of the season. You’ll feel better on July 5.

Best wishes for the All-Star Break

 

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(Click the RED link below to listen)

Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio Show: Join guest host Andrea LaMont, and Kyle Amore live on Sunday July 9th, 2017 from 7-9pm EST for episode #93 of Major League Fantasy Baseball Radio. We are a live broadcast that will take callers at 323-870-4395. Press 1 to speak with the host. We will discuss the latest information in the world of fantasy baseball.

Our guest this week is Kyle Kilnker. Kyle is a staple member of majorleaguefantasysports.com, and also a MLFB Champion.

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Unrepentant Red Sox fan and all things Boston. Deflategate was a joke. Boston Latin School is awesome. Harvard and Johns Hopkins alma maters... Besides that... Stanley D. and Nikki Waxberg Professor of Politics and Law at Washington and Lee University. Wrote for Ron Shandler's Shandler Park for two summers and have been on board with MLFS since 2011. Been at Washington and Lee since 1990 with a brief hiatus (2010-2013) in the Middle East. Currently developing that last word in Fantasy Baseball analysis. Married to Flor, Dad to William and Alex, and adopted daughter Reem. Soon to be father and law to Meaghann. Alpha male to the world's super-pup, Humphrey. Life is not bad.

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