“Big Rigg” Quarterback and Tight End Plays for DFS/Season-Long Week #9
Deshaun Watson was once considered a value but he’s now the highest priced QB on Fanduel. Although Watson does have a great matchup against the Colts who are giving up 8.9 yards per attempt, Watson is no longer a value play and at $9,600 he needs to blow up in order to justify his cost. Moving down the quarterback list, Carson Wentz has been one of the top fantasy QB’s on the year, but he finds himself up against Denver this week which has been a brutal matchup making him a bad DFS play. Drew Brees has a relatively modest cost at $8,300 on Fanduel, but he only has 3 passing touchdowns over his last 3 games as the Saints have relied more on the running game lately, making him a risky play even though the Bucs surrender 7.7 yards per attempt and have been ripped for 12 passing TD’s on the year.
Dak Prescott – Dallas Cowboys vs KC Chiefs – $8,200 Fanduel – $6,700 DK – As far as we know, Zeke Elliott is suspended. The Cowboys offensive line grades out positively against the Chiefs run defense according to Pro Football Focus, but regardless of that, the Cowboys rushing attack will not be the same without Zeke running the rock. Marcus Peters has been good but everybody else in coverage for the Chiefs has been putrid. As long as Dez Bryant stays healthy, the Cowboys offense should continue to roll with Dak, especially this week against the Chiefs who have been giving up 7.5 yards per attempt which is towards the bottom half of the league and 14 passing touchdowns. Given the Chiefs offensive firepower, this has the potential to be a shootout.
Matthew Stafford – Detroit Lions @ GB Packers – $7,900 Fanduel – $6,100 DK – The Packers give up 7.3 yards per attempt but have only surrendered 9 passing touchdowns. The Lions haven’t been able to run the ball well all year and according to Pro Football Focus, their offensive line has a negative grade when matched up against the Packers defensive front, meaning the Lions will need to throw the ball if they want to score points. Golden Tate and Marvin Jones have really good matchups this week against the Packers corners and are fresh off solid performances against the Steelers corners who have been holding opposing wide outs down. Look for Stafford to get it done against the Packers this week, it just seems right to get him in your lineups.
Derek Carr – Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins – $7,800 Fanduel – $6,400 DK – Carr has been struggling a little bit with his back injury but the Dolphins are really struggling on the back end. Coming off a disappointing effort in Buffalo where Derek Carr fell victim to drops, he still threw for over 300 yards. Look for Carr and the Raiders to rebound against a team struggling to find its identity and more or less laid down against the Ravens just one week ago. The Dolphins have given up 11 passing TD’s on the year and are surrendering 7.2 yards per attempt. If Cutler and the Dolphins are able to beat up on the Raiders horrible pass defense, game flow may dictate 40+ throws for Carr.
Jared Goff – LA Rams @ NY Giants – $7,600 Fanduel – $5,500 DK – Goff can get it done if the matchup is right. Against the Giants this week, the matchup isn’t the best, but it’s not horrible. Teams have thrown the ball 266 times on the Giants which is 9th most in the league. Snacks Harrison makes it difficult to run on the Giants so teams lean on the pass against them, especially since Janoris Jenkins is the only problem matchup in the Giants secondary. Oh, and the Giants will be without Jenkins this weekend, making the Giants defense much less formidable. The Giants give up 7.1 yards per attempt which is middle of the pack and have surrendered 14 passing TD’s. This is likely to be a week where Gurley gets it done in the passing game more so than the running game given the situation, which is a positive for Goff.
I am scared to death to play Jay Cutler and his broken ribs against the Oakland Raiders this weekend. Cutler has been miserable this year and hasn’t put up more than 13.1 fantasy points in any game this year even though he’s had some pretty favorable matchups. Even though Cutler stinks, his body language sucks, he’s hurt, the vibes in Miami are horrible and they just traded one of their best offensive players, the numbers indicate you should roll Jay Cutler out there especially with his low cost. Cutler only costs $6,700 on Fanduel and on DK he’s $4,900 which is less than CJ Beathard. With the Raiders giving up 8.0 yards per attempt (2nd worst in the league) and 11 passing TD’s on the year, Cutler really should get it done this week, especially since DeVante Parker is expected to make his return to the lineup. The numbers make sense and scream at you to play Cutler, but at this point, I just don’t see how you can do so with any confidence because if anybody is capable of letting you down, it’s him.
Last week, Travis Kelce absolutely scorched the Broncos secondary. A few weeks ago, I wrote about how Broncos Safety Will Parks was doing alright in pass coverage and that his matchup with Evan Engram was going to be interesting. Well, ever since I wrote that, Parks has been getting abused by opposing tight ends. The Broncos corners have been getting it done against opposing wide receivers so logic says that Wentz will need to throw the ball to the hottest tight end in the league in a plus matchup. However, my 3 year old son Jake could tell you that Zach Ertz is a good play this week, so we will dig a little deeper and talk about some lower cost alternatives.
Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks vs Washington Redskins – $6,200 Fanduel – $5,000 DK – DJ Swearinger has been a liability in pass coverage this year for the Redskins and we should expect that to continue as he faces off against Jimmy Graham this week. I know Graham has had some brutal drops lately, but the talent is there, and the matchup is right. Josh Norman is back for Washington meaning the receiver on Norman’s side should be fairly well covered, which should lead Russell Wilson to exploit other matchups.
Cam Brate – TB Buccaneers @ NO Saints – $6,100 Fanduel – $4,500 DK – Vonn Bell figures to cover Cam Brate this week and he’s giving up 6 inches to Brate in the matchup. Bell has been up and down all year, but upon review of the game logs, Bell seems to hold below average talent down, while surrendering monster games to studs who get decent volume. Brate is the 11th most targeted tight end in the league and he’s done so with OJ Howard on the field with him. Brate has been one of Jameis Winston’s favorite targets this year and that should continue this week in a game which could be high scoring with the Bucs playing catch up.
Jared Cook – Oakland Raiders @ Miami Dolphins – $5,500 Fanduel – $4,000 DK – The Dolphins have given up a touchdown to opposing tight ends in 3 of their last 4 games. Reshad Jones has been a little better in pass coverage lately, but he’s still been getting beat. Cook has seen consistent targets from Carr each game and is a true field stretcher. Cook could be a real difference maker for you in your lineups this week with his big play ability with a low cost in DFS.
Jack Doyle – Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans – $5,700 Fanduel – $4,300 DK – Jack Doyle is 6’6″ and Texans Safety Andre Hal, who figures to cover Doyle, is only 5’10”. Jacoby Brissett targeted Doyle heavily last week and is likely to do so again given the size mismatch. Although Doyle is the hot name coming off a huge game, I am not 100% sleeping on the Colts wide receivers this week. TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief have only gotten it done this year when the opposition can’t match up well, and this year the Texans defense has given up the 5th most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief should be ok against Kevin Johnson and Jonathan Joseph this week, but even if they do come through, there is enough room for Doyle to get it done as well because the Texans should shred the Colts defense and the Colts are likely to be throwing the entire game.
Vernon Davis – Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks – $5,400 Fanduel – $4,100 DK – I am scared to play Vernon Davis this week, but if Jordan Reed doesn’t play, I love Davis. If Reed does play, you simply can’t trust that Davis is going to get enough snaps to be featured. At this point, you almost hope that Reed is inactive and the Redskins just allow him to get healthy and they feature Davis. After Reed’s big week 7 performance, you almost can’t sit him if he plays. This is an extremely frustrating situation.
QB and TE Stack of the Week
Derek Carr and Jared Cook are my QB and TE stack of the week. Miami has given up numbers to the tight end position this year and the Raiders should need to throw a lot since their defense is struggling and figures to allow a lot of points. When you combine game flow, the quarterback, the matchup and the volume, it just makes sense to stack these guys, especially with Cook’s low price on daily sites.