With all the bye weeks we’ve been having over the last few weeks, it seems like there haven’t been many viable low end options staring us in the face at the QB position. This week, that looks to change. However, although there are some low owned, low salary guys out there, the situations they’re in aren’t exactly the best, making them somewhat risky plays. Jay Cutler is a low owned and low priced QB and I understand that he got it done last week in fantasy, but with his track record, I don’t want to use him unless there are absolutely no other options. I want to see Jay Cutler get it done again before I start “trusting” him. Moreover, Cutler’s matchup against Carolina this week isn’t the greatest for QB’s.
Jared Goff vs Houston Texans – $8,200 Fanduel – $6,700 DK – The Texans defense is a shell of its former self since JJ Watt went down and on the season, they are giving up the second worst 8.2 yards per attempt passing. The Texans have also been dealing with a lot of injuries in the secondary making them vulnerable. Poor pass rush + banged up secondary = not great. Goff has only failed to come through when he has a tough matchup, and the Texans defense does not fit that description, so roll him out there.
Josh McCown @ Tampa Bay Bucs – $7,400 Fanduel – $6,100 DK – Not too far behind the Texans brutal pass defense is the Tampa Bay defense, who is surrendering 7.9 yards per attempt and 14 TD’s on the year. The Jets won’t have an issue moving the ball up and down the field against the Bucs this Sunday, the only thing that might hold McCown back is if game flow doesn’t call for the Jets to throw the ball deep into the second half.
Eli Manning @ San Francisco 49ers – $6,700 Fanduel – $5,100 DK – I know Eli doesn’t have the best weapons at his disposal, but this matchup is great. If Drew Stanton can come through against the 49ers, you would think a 2 time Super Bowl Champion would be able to as well. The 49ers give up 7.6 yards per attempt, 244 yards per game and have allowed 16 passing TD’s on the year. In addition to the plus matchup, the other factor that favors Manning is that the Giants don’t have a running game, so they will likely need to throw the entire game even if they’re ahead.
Matt Stafford vs Cleveland Browns – $8,200 Fanduel – $6,800 DK – The Browns defense has been tough against the run so far this year, surrendering only 2.9 yards per rush which is best in the NFL, so the Lions should be fairly pass heavy early in this game. The Browns defense has given up 7.4 yards per pass attempt this year and 16 passing TD’s which is 3rd worst in the league. However, teams simply aren’t throwing the ball a lot against the Browns, only 32.5 times per game, which is not far off from the 31.1 passes attempted per game on the Broncos. Teams run a lot on the Browns, which indicates that the opposition passes with great success early, builds a lead and then pounds the ball fruitlessly into the Browns solid run defense nursing late leads. You should be ok with Stafford, but you really need him to come through earlier in the game as the Lions are likely to get out to a solid lead and then kill the clock in the run game.
Digging Deep – Ryan Fitzpatrick vs NY Jets – $6,100 Fanduel – $4,900 DK – The Jets are giving up 7.0 yards per pass attempt which is about the NFL average, but they have surrendered 19 passing TD’s this year which is the most in the league. Even without Mike Evans, Fitzpatrick should come through especially at his extremely low cost in daily. Game flow should favor a lot of passes from Fitzpatrick in this game as well, although they may come in the form of check downs and shallow routes.
We are now in week 10 of the NFL season and we really have a lot of data at our disposal to determine which teams are truly horrible at defending tight ends. The Browns, Redskins and Giants have proven incapable of guarding tight ends for most of the season and as long as the opposition has a viable tight end, you should continue to stream tight ends against those defenses.
Evan Engram @ San Francisco 49ers – $7,400 Fanduel – $6,200 DK – The 49ers have given up the 3rd fewest points to the tight end position on the season, however, they have surrendered a touchdown to tight ends in each of the last 3 weeks. Given the Giants lack of playmakers on the outside, Engram should be Eli’s favorite target on Sunday, if not a close second to Sterling Shepard. Ignore the matchup here, because he will come through with high volume.
Kyle Rudolph @ Washington Redskins – $5,400 Fanduel – $4,600 DK – Keep targeting DJ Swearinger. Jimmy Graham had 5 catches for 59 yards last week but failed to find the endzone. Although Graham failed to score, Luke Willson, the Seahawks backup tight end did. Rudolph is a good bet to come through.
Hunter Henry @ Jacksonville Jaguars – $5,400 Fanduel – $3,900 DK – Last week, Tyler Kroft was able to break free for a long catch on his way to a 2 catch 79 yard day. Chances are, Kroft could have done a lot more damage if the Bengals were able to sustain any sort of offense and run more than 40 plays on the day. The Bengals simply couldn’t sustain any offense against the Jaguars and therefore the stats looked gross across the board. Hunter Henry is an ascending young talent and the Chargers should be able to protect Rivers better than the Bengals protected Dalton. The Jaguars corners should limit the Chargers receivers and Rivers is likely to attack them through the middle with passes to Henry and Melvin Gordon.
Eric Ebron vs Cleveland Browns – $5,300 Fanduel – $3,100 DK – Eric Ebron has been horrible this year but if he’s ever going to come through, it’s this week against the Browns. The Browns are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points to the tight end position on the season, an average of 7.6 catches, 70 yards and .8 TD’s per game. Ebron is an athlete so it wouldn’t surprise me if he breaks loose in this one. I think a reasonable expectation is 4 catches for 65 yards with a strong possibility of scoring.
“Big Rigg” QB/TE Stack of the Week
I am going to roll Eli Manning and Evan Engram out there in a few DFS lineups this week. I understand you need to pay up a little for Engram, but Eli is so much cheaper than the other quarterbacks, it levels out. The Giants running game is non-existent and the 49ers are truly horrible on defense. The Giants will put points on the board and the points will go through Manning, who has nobody to throw the ball to other than Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. Tavarres King is an intriguing option on the outside, but he’s a one trick pony, a deep threat. The Giants outside receivers are, to date, huge unknowns, so the smart play is to get Shepard and Engram out there.