When the season started in April, we all had high hopes and aspirations that our teams would inflict fantasy dominance over the rest of the league. For most owners this is the case even when we draft a horrible team. As much as I would love to think that the world is filled with eternal optimists, it seems to be just another case of being biased. Every fantasy owner marvels at their team as soon as the draft commences, no matter how bad it really is or may become once the season starts. Matt Kemp, Justin Verlander and David Price would have looked like a dream team to any owner, though, that probably would have them in ninth place at this point in time. So much can happen from the night you draft, it’s almost impossible to ever pin point how exactly your team will fare, even as you’re picking. Injuries, production, call ups, contracts, managerial decisions, and most certainly age play a tremendous role in having a successful season. The thing of it is, there is really no way to tell how these conditions and actions will, or will not, affect the players on our teams…or is there?
When we sit in our man cave to draft, with usually at the very least our favorite alcoholic or non alcoholic beverage, we do so with the mindset of every guy we pick will produce at a high level. Our sleepers are going to serve up the fantasy goodies at the rate of third and fourth round selections, because why? Well, we drafted them, that’s why. Could it be some “ignorance is bliss” type of scenario? Sure! Borderline arrogant? But of course it is. Though, if we just take a look at one area that is sadly overlooked more times than not, it could prove to be the best source of information owners can attain…consistency! That’s right, as simple as it sounds is as simple as it is. You know Troy Tulowitzki has barely played over 100 games the last two seasons? Now if you grabbed a strong backup, you certainly have done yourself the kind of service that makes sense. Prince Fielder has started for his team every game since opening day of 2009! Shin-Soo Choo has hit at least 15 HRs and 20 SBs in three out of the four past seasons. This is the type of information owners might want to utilize on draft day; not upside or projections. It stands to reason that solid proof will pretty much determine more than a guess any day. I completely understand that some things just play out how they do and there is nothing we can do about it. At the same time, wouldn’t a smarter bet be to try and minimize the uncertainty, not increase it. Being wrong about a player that makes sense because of sound, factual information will not feel as bad as just being wrong due to hype and popularity.
Often I wonder, does having such a large chance to be wrong make fantasy so rewarding when you win? I think so! Active owners put extensive amounts of time into their teams, so to feel compensated for your efforts is a pretty good feeling. The luck argument is a joke to me, and that’s just my opinion. Finding a $20 bill on your way to work is lucky, correctly managing your team for 23 weeks is a skill. Let’s be honest here folks, as awesome as the money is, we are in this thing to show our baseball knowledge supersedes any other in our league. When we look back, the decisions we made throughout the course of the season reflect our final standings. Ryan Dempster will be a beast on the Redsox, why? Once again, you picked him and there is no other way it could play out in your mind. Meanwhile, we all knew it would be a year of increased ratio and decreased strikeout stats because he is not facing the Pirates and Astros 20 games each during the season. “RA Dickey will have what it takes to repeat his Cy Young award winning season.” Yeah, umm, that hasn’t exactly happened either. It’s actually pretty funny how we can trick our minds to believe almost anything. Yet, if you stick with the facts that show consistency, rather than just banking on a hope, you could very well be dowsing yourself in yoo-hoo when the season ends.
Enjoy the All-Star Game, readers!
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Categories: Fantasy Baseball