“Cut to the Chase” The old and forgotten (Who can win you a trophy right now)

Chase Jacobs

   

    There is a misunderstanding in fantasy football. This gaffe can be exploited. Owners across the board are pursuing youth, especially in dynasty leagues. Ask yourself, “Why would you want to risk your higher picks on unknown commodities?” I understand that the world of fantasy is gambling. Literally. Even if you are viewing NCAA football on a regular basis and feel like you understand what a player can bring to the NFL when he’s drafted, you never know how they’ll react to a new lifestyle, new surroundings and the brutal, fast-paced brand of football known as the NFL.

    Positions play a huge part in the evaluation of age and their deterioration rate. The best example you can find looking at the stats of the top scorers over the past five seasons, you will notice quarterbacks have cemented themselves in the driver seat of generating points on a consistent basis. Very few of said QBs are rookies or second year pros. A closer look at last year’s fantasy points will vary slightly, based on your points system, but not greatly.

1. Peyton Manning DEN

2. Drew Brees NOS

3. Andy Dalton CIN

4. Phillip Rivers SDC

5. Cam Newton CAR

    This list captures top fantasy scorers at the most consistent position in football right now. Three out of five of these guys are 32 or over. Phillip Rivers, the best case for stealing a forgotten name, was hovering around QB20 on many publications as of September ‘13. Rivers illustrates that some positions such as his have absolute value regardless of age and in this case may have a “sweet spot” or “peak” around 30. Where as a running back finds their peak around 25.

    Digressing from some fairly obvious facts for some, there are players that get tossed around and don’t generate buzz. Sometimes because of their quiet style, sometimes because their team is off the radar. As time moves on, these players become names on a list, losing their luster. Utilizing your knowledge of the image of certain players will greatly improve your chances of rostering them at the smallest cost (Later draft picks/less value traded).

    If you plan on playing fantasy football for money, your thesis should be “Cogito ergo sum” or “I think, therefore I am”. Do not make decisions based on trends or “liking” a player/team. Find the best players for the least amount you have to give.

 

These players are the tops of your bargain hunting and will add the most value for less.

 phillip rivers

Phillip Rivers, QB San Diego

    Previously mentioned, Rivers’ basement value in the 2013 offseason will rise slightly to around QB15 in dynasty leagues. The Chargers restructured surprise stand out receiver Eddie Royal and re-signed big play WR Seyi Ajirotutu. Former Steeler TE David Johnson signed on with the Chargers, Johnson was a trusty combo TE in Pittsburgh that can make himself known for both manhandling outside pass rushers and providing “Marmalade” with a big target, not named Antonio Gates. Guard Chad Rinehart re-signed to hold together a pretty nasty front in San Diego that allowed less than two sacks a game. The 2013 comeback player of the year looked better than when he was in his twenties. Checking down, making reads and the best of his surrounding players’ strengths. Phillip Rivers is back and will overcome a tough schedule to make it back to the top of the heap of NFL fantasy quarterbacks.

 fjax

Fred Jackson, RB Buffalo

    Year after year, Fred Jackson is overlooked. CJ Spiller has been given the key to the Bills running game by the fantasy community. At 33, No one seems to have told Jackson or his body that his career is over. F-Jax has had his share of injuries over his career, but the Euro League alum missed no games in 2013 and looks as explosive as ever.

CJ Spiller may not be able to shoulder the load of carries durably like Bills’ fans hoped, but has split the load almost equally. Jackson’s ability to stay consistent and provide adequate ball control have paid off, the Bills have made an integral role in the redzone for the Coe graduate. Jackson nailed down nine touchdowns to Spiller’s two. Fred should be hovering around an astonishing RB55 after being a top 15 scorer in 2013. There is no reason why Jackson and Spiller can’t continue their symbiosis to Fred’s benefit. You have a “win now” mentality? Fred Jackson is your guy around  RB 30 or so.

 ajohnson

Andre Johnson, WR Houston

    For a top-tier receiver that has been a consistent WR1 for his entire career, Andre Johnson sure has been quickly forgotten. At 32, his talent has never been in question, eleven years with the Texans would seem to call for his downfall. 2013’s 2-14 debacle was a product of injuries, terrible defense, poor play on the offensive line and Matt Schaub’s implosion.

2014 brings new hope for the Texans. Along with the easiest schedule in the NFL comes a fresh Quarterback in either Ryan Fitzpatrick or a top-tier rookie to man an offense that boasts not only Johnson, but emerging sophomore wideout DeAndre Hopkins to draw coverage. Bill O’Brien has indicated that he and the Houston staff will be upgrading the offensive line (Especially the guard position), whether by trade or the May 8th draft. Andre Brown has been signed to serve in the backfield with Arian Foster and add a pass protection weapon. Johnson will not only have Hopkins, but a very dependable receiving corps is developing with both speedster Keshawn Martin and possession wideout DeVier Posey developing into capable targets. The best news for the Texans is that they kept sensational TE Garrett Graham, resigning him to a three-year deal. Garrett and Ryan Griffin will combine in O’Brien’s offense for one of the best blocking tight end tandems in the NFL.

Johnson is not done producing in the NFL and his health and targets should remain if the new regime can utilize the assets around them and successfully draft around Foster, AJ and Hopkins.

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants

Justin Tuck, DE Oakland Raiders

          Tuck enters into one of the most aggressive and underrated defenses in the NFL. Lamarr Woodley and Antonio Smith’s arrivals should alleviate the blocking and help find a way to opposing quarterbacks. Having ruthless pass rushers Sio Moore, Nick Roach and Kevin Burnett behind Tuck should keep teams guessing how to contain the end, who racked up eleven sacks in 2013 with the Giants and will be looking to duplicate this endeavor.

 

 

These players might seem stale, they might seem unimaginative. These players will produce in 2014 and if you can find them at a sufficient value ahead of the herd, you can wind up playing for all the marbles this year. Dynasty or redraft, playing fantasy football for money happens every year and these guys are worth a look right now.



Categories: Fantasy Football, Weekly Roster Advice

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2 replies

  1. I agree completely with Phillip Rivers. He had a few rough seasons in a row, but last season rebounded in a huge way. Keenan Allen’s emergence greatly assisted in Rivers, and I have to believe that he’ll continue his resurgence.
    I do have to respectfully disagree on Fred Jackson. I am all too aware of how well he performed last season, but I can’t see his body holding up this year. I continue to remain steadfast in my belief that CJ Spiller will do something special this season, despite having a somewhat pedestrian year. I would expect him to increase his touchdowns (only 2) and continue to be a greater part of the offensive scheme.

    With Andre Johnson, I’m right down the middle. As to whether he’s a value or not greatly depends on where you’re taking him. I think he has something left in the tank, though not selecting a rookie QB could hurt his value. Unfortunately, I’m not a believer in Case Keenum, but I do have faith in Ryan Fitzpatrick.

    Well written my good man. I look forward to the future

  2. Thanks Mr. Ingram, Glad to hear positive praise.

    Keenan Allen will be a big help for Marmalade. Fred Jackson is only a few persons’ pearl. All the better to nail you in the fantasy playoffs with. Andre Johnson is a workout fiend that rivals Jerry Rice, he will get back to business.

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