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“The Mad Professor:” Studs and Duds, Part Deux — Pitchers

 

Hi Sports fans.   While the UK is vacating Europe and  Spain tries again to form a government, I’m here, undeterred, working on the studs and duds.  Last week I provided an overview of who had risen and who had fallen among batters.  This week, I focus on pitchers using current and preseason rankings from our friends at Yahoo!.

A Brief Methodological Pause…

I begin on a methodological note.   The data uses a pitcher’s ranking among all MLB players.  Thus, to begin the season, Clayton Kershaw was the #1 pitcher.  But, Yahoo! ranked him #4 overall.  So, the top 25 Pitchers are not the top 25 players.  As a result, the top 25 pitchers’ rankings extend far down into the top 100 players overall.

I'm #475!

I’m #475!

Out of the top 300 pitchers in Yahoo!’s preseason rankings, 139 experienced drops in ranking, one stayed the same (Jonathan Broxton at 475) and 160 experienced increases in value.  As I noted last week, these statistics must be kept in perspective.  The farther you move down from the top pitchers, the more opportunity there is for a player to move up or down.  Top players however, have limited upside and, therefore, have only two real options:  stay about the same or drop in ranking.

lightningLet’s use Clayton Kershaw as an example.  He’s been otherworldly this year. He has 16 starts, 14 QS, 11 W, 1.57 ERA, WHIP of 0.67 and a K/9 ratio of 1.23 (SERIOUSLY.  WE’RE NOT WORTHY!).  He rose three spots overall in the Yahoo! rankings, but has been the top-ranked pitcher pretty much all year.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins

 

So, he presents us with a small analytical problem and a great example of the limits of assigning ranks or dollar values. Since he has 16 starts, let’s use that as a base line.  Even if he had 16 W, 16 QS and 6 no-hitters, he could not be ranked higher than #1. The best he could do is rise three slots to the #1 rank.  He’s done that already.  No matter how well he does the rest of the year, he can’t go any higher in the rankings.  Meanwhile, a player with a preseason rank of 200 could jump 100 slots — pretty impressive — and still not compare to Kershaw.

Statistics Don’t Lie

source: memecrunch.com

If we look at comparisons, we can get a sense of the fickleness of rankings and dollar values.  Again, these are blunt instruments we use to try to take a player’s entire statistical portfolio and assign ONE NUMBER to it that serves as an accurate indicator of both individual and relative performance.  That’s a pretty difficult task.  A good skeptic would say that dollar values and ranks are therefore kinda useless.  That’s taking all of this a bit too far. Fantasy sports analysis is as much an art as it is a science.  It is not perfect.  But it’s a far cry from Spinal Tap’s Nigel Tufnel declaring, “These go to 11.”  We make draft day and trade decisions based on this stuff.  So, it matters even though it’s imperfect.

source: Johnreiber.com

source: Johnreiber.com

So, let’s look at who has disappointed and who is providing solid (o, at least surprising) value.

The Top 25 Pitchers

Some summary notes. The following table lists the top 25 pitchers based on preseason ranking. Closers are in italics.  As I noted above, the actual rankings extend beyond 25 because the rankings are drawn from the MLB player base.  So, Craig Kimbrel had a preseason ranking overall of 78.  But he was the 25th highest ranked pitcher.

Among the 25 ranked pitchers in preseason:

  • 15 have dropped in the rankings
  • 10 have improved
  • 22 are SP and 3 are closers
  • All three closers have dropped an average of 55 slots in the rankings.

Table 1:  The Top 25 Pitchers Based on Preseason Rankings

Pitchers GP Preseason Current change % Owned IP W SV K K9 ERA WHIP QS
Clayton Kershaw LAD – P 16 4 1 3 99% 115 11 0 141 1.23 1.57 0.67 14
Max Scherzer Was – P 16 15 29 -14 99% 107.1 8 0 138 1.29 3.52 1 11
Chris Sale CWS – P 15 24 20 4 99% 105 12 0 102 0.97 2.83 0.99 11
Jake Arrieta ChC – P 15 25 13 12 99% 98 11 0 107 1.09 1.74 0.98 10
Madison Bumgarner SF – P 16 28 11 17 99% 108.1 8 0 122 1.13 1.99 1.02 14
Jacob deGrom NYM – P 14 29 107 -78 98% 81 3 0 77 0.95 2.67 1.12 10
José Fernández Mia – P 14 30 22 8 99% 87.2 9 0 125 1.43 2.36 0.99 9
Matt Harvey NYM – P 15 34 329 -295 97% 85.1 4 0 69 0.81 4.64 1.38 7
Corey Kluber Cle – P 15 36 63 -27 98% 102.2 7 0 103 1.01 3.59 1.01 9
Noah Syndergaard NYM – P 15 37 21 16 99% 91 8 0 110 1.21 2.08 0.99 12
Stephen Strasburg Was – P 14 38 30 8 99% 93 10 0 118 1.27 2.9 1.06 10
David Price Bos – P 16 40 116 -76 99% 102 8 0 110 1.08 4.68 1.22 11
Zack Greinke Ari – P 16 42 69 -27 99% 107.1 10 0 89 0.83 3.61 1.15 10
Gerrit Cole Pit – P 12 44 157 -113 96% 68.1 5 0 55 0.81 2.77 1.32 8
Dallas Keuchel Hou – P 16 48 456 -408 93% 101 4 0 89 0.88 5.35 1.43 7
Chris Archer TB – P 16 50 249 -199 95% 92 4 0 108 1.17 4.7 1.43 8
Carlos Carrasco Cle – P 9 57 179 -122 95% 56 3 0 49 0.88 2.73 1.11 5
Félix Hernández Sea – P 10 61 163 -102 97% 63 4 0 53 0.84 2.86 1.22 7
Johnny Cueto SF – P 15 65 12 53 99% 109.1 11 0 96 0.88 2.06 0.99 13
Sonny Gray Oak – P 13 67 532 -465 92% 72.2 3 0 60 0.83 5.2 1.49 6
Wade Davis KC – P 27 72 155 -83 98% 26.1 1 18 26 1.00 1.03 0.95 0
Jon Lester ChC – P 15 73 18 55 98% 98.2 9 0 99 1.01 2.1 1 13
Adam Wainwright StL – P 15 74 231 -157 94% 91.1 6 0 65 0.71 4.73 1.31 10
Kenley Jansen LAD – P 32 78 99 -21 98% 30.1 3 21 35 1.16 1.48 0.69 0
Craig Kimbrel Bos – P 30 79 142 -63 98% 30 1 16 45 1.50 2.4 0.83 0

The biggest gainers are John Lester, who jumped 55 points to #18, and Johnny Cueto, who jumped 53 spots to #12 among all MLB players.  But we see here some of the guys who have us pulling our hair out because we picked them as #1 or #2 starters on draft day.

sonnygraylosangelesangelsanaheimvoaklandx8iakpe3k8al

My ears are popping

Got a small case of the bends. source: mlb.com

Got a small case of the bends. source: mlb.com

 

 

keuchel

I’ve fallen and I can’t get up! source: mlb.com

I

I got the bends too. source: mlb.com

Sonny Gray dropped 465 spots. Cy Young Award Winner Dallas Keuchel is right behind him, plummeting 408 spots.  Seriously, these guys must be stone deaf — their ears have been popping all season.

The Baseball Gods are Nasty.

The rankings are annoying.  If we compare the top 25 pitchers based on preseason and current rankings, we see a lot of the same names (12 pitchers appear on both lists).   Were you drafting at the end of March and doing a redraft today, you’d be looking at the following choices among the top 25 pitchers based on overall MLB player rankings.  Players in bold appear in both columns.  They have remained in the top 25 pitchers in baseball.  But, as Table 1 indicates, you’d be paying radically different dollar amounts for some of these guys or, at least, drafting them a lot lower than you did a couple of months ago.  Still, performance is relative, pitching is vital and drafts are zero-sum propositions:  If I get Kershaw,  you don’t.

Table 2: Preseason and Current Top 25 Pitchers

Preseason top 25 Current (26 June)
Clayton Kershaw LAD – P Clayton Kershaw LAD – P
Max Scherzer Was – P Madison Bumgarner SF – P
Chris Sale CWS – P Johnny Cueto SF – P
Jake Arrieta ChC – P Jake Arrieta ChC – P
Madison Bumgarner SF – P Jon Lester ChC – P
Jacob deGrom NYM – P Chris Sale CWS – P
José Fernández Mia – P Noah Syndergaard NYM – P
Matt Harvey NYM – P José Fernández Mia – P
Corey Kluber Cle – P Max Scherzer Was – P
Noah Syndergaard NYM – P Stephen Strasburg Was – P
Stephen Strasburg Was – P Julio Teherán Atl – P
David Price Bos – P Steven Wright Bos – P
Zack Greinke Ari – P John Lackey ChC – P
Gerrit Cole Pit – P Danny Salazar Cle – P
Dallas Keuchel Hou – P Marco Estrada Tor – P
Chris Archer TB – P Drew Pomeranz SD – P
Carlos Carrasco Cle – P Corey Kluber Cle – P
Félix Hernández Sea – P Cole Hamels Tex – P
Johnny Cueto SF – P Justin Verlander Det – P
Sonny Gray Oak – P Zack Greinke Ari – P
Wade Davis KC – P Rich Hill Oak – P
Jon Lester ChC – P Colby Lewis Tex – P
Adam Wainwright StL – P Masahiro Tanaka NYY – P
Kenley Jansen LAD – P Jason Hammel ChC – P
Craig Kimbrel Bos – P Chris Tillman Bal – P

As I noted, among the top 300 pitchers, more experienced an increase in rank than a decrease, but the relative scale of those changes differs radically.  The following is a graph of the top 300 pitchers according to Yahoo!’s preseason rankings.  It shows that pitchers (as we saw with batters last week) are more likely to experience pretty amazing drops than increases in value.  To keep this in perspective:

  • Among  the 139 pitchers in the preseason top 300 that experienced a DROP in value, the AVERAGE DROP was 297 spots
  • Among the 160 pitchers who rose in the ranks, the average GAIN was 97 spots.

Scatterplot of change vs Preseason

Again, this makes sense.  Dallas Keuchel is more likely to turn into Charley Brown than Joe Shlabotnik is going to turn into Mike Trout.  Thus, while a majority of pitchers (160/300) experienced an increase in value, the relative scope of the drops that occurred among the 139 Pitchers who lost value was pretty staggering.  Gains tend to be small, losses tend to be big.

The Biggest Losers

There is not enough room to cover all 300 pitchers.  Besides, a lot of the ones towards #300 are on no one’s roster.  So, let’s focus on the top 100 Pitchers on Opening Day.  I resorted them to see who fell the farthest.  The 25 pitchers who experienced the greatest drop among the 100 highest ranked pitchers on Opening Day are in Table  3.

Table 3:  Pitchers Among  the Presason top 100 that fell the farthest  since Opening Day

Pitchers GP Preseason Current change % Owned IP W SV K K9 ERA WHIP QS
Shelby Miller Ari – P 13 168 1046 -878 37% 58 2 0 40 0.69 6.79 1.77 2
James Shields CWS – P 15 156 921 -765 45% 81 2 0 65 0.80 6.22 1.7 8
J.J. Hoover Cin – P 17 217 972 -755 17% 17 1 1 15 0.87 11.7 2.04 0
Luis Severino NYY – P 7 195 944 -749 18% 35 0 0 27 0.77 7.46 1.69 2
Tyson Ross SD – P 1 92 777 -685 69% 5.1 0 0 5 0.98 11.8 1.88
Glen Perkins Min – P 2 154 686 -532 34% 2 0 0 3 1.50 9 3 0
Ken Giles Hou – P 35 125 649 -524 40% 31 0 1 41 1.32 5.23 1.48 0
Clay Buchholz Bos – P 16 234 739 -505 24% 71 3 0 49 0.69 5.83 1.41 3
Francisco Liriano Pit – P 14 98 580 -482 74% 78 4 0 80 1.02 5.17 1.63 5
Sonny Gray Oak – P 13 67 532 -465 92% 72 3 0 60 0.83 5.2 1.49 6
Dallas Keuchel Hou – P 16 48 456 -408 93% 101 4 0 89 0.88 5.35 1.43 7
Drew Storen Tor – P 32 229 596 -367 22% 28 1 3 29 1.03 5.08 1.52 0
Trevor Rosenthal StL – P 29 100 454 -354 89% 24 2 14 36 1.50 5.63 2.04 0
Shawn Tolleson Tex – P 26 181 529 -348 32% 24 2 11 20 0.83 7.13 1.58 0
Raisel Iglesias Cin – P 7 118 448 -330 56% 31 1 0 31 1.00 3.45 1.4 2
Huston Street LAA – P 16 132 441 -309 83% 13 2 7 7 0.53 3.95 1.61 0
Matt Harvey NYM – P 15 34 329 -295 97% 85 4 0 69 0.81 4.64 1.38 7
Michael Pineda NYY – P 15 109 387 -278 65% 83 3 0 96 1.16 5.51 1.42 7
Lance McCullers Hou – P 8 163 432 -269 72% 46 3 0 56 1.22 3.91 1.67 3
Jake McGee Col – P 24 190 438 -248 66% 21 0 15 15 0.71 4.98 1.57 0
Marcus Stroman Tor – P 15 114 359 -245 81% 96 6 0 67 0.70 5.23 1.38 8
Andrew Cashner SD – P 11 235 478 -243 20% 53 3 0 36 0.68 4.75 1.45 5
Yu Darvish Tex – P ? 3 173 401 -228 89% 15 2 0 19 1.25 2.87 1.15
Garrett Richards LAA – P 6 93 308 -215 37% 34 1 0 34 0.99 2.34 1.33 4
Chris Archer TB – P 16 50 249 -199 95% 92 4 0 108 1.17 4.7 1.43 8

Among these, four were in the preseason top 25 Pitchers:  Chris Archer, Dallas Keuchel, Sonny Gray and Matt Harvey.  I’ve discussed Archer  and Harvey enough this year.  Their ears are popping but not as much as Keuchel’s and Gray’s.

In Case You Like Pain

The data demonstrate the volatility of closers.  Each year, our friend Ron Shandler dedicates n o small  amount of ink in his Baseball Forecaster to warn us about closer volatility.  These data confirm Ron’s analysis.   Eight Opening Day Closers are among the biggest losers: Perkins, Hoover, Giles, Storen, Rosenthal,  McGee, Tolleson and Street. What’s especially remarkable is that several of these guys have double digit saves this year.  Tolleson, Rosenthal and McGee would fall in the top 25 in terms of saves at this point.

The Current Setting

The top 25 pitchers today  include the usual suspects and some real surprises,

Table  4: The Current Top 25 Pitchers

Pitchers GP Pre-
Season
Current change % Owned IP W SV K ERA WHIP QS
Clayton Kershaw LAD – P 16 4 1 3 99% 115 11 0 141 1.57 0.67 14
Madison Bumgarner SF – P 16 28 11 17 99% 108 8 0 122 1.99 1.02 14
Johnny Cueto SF – P 15 65 12 53 99% 109 11 0 96 2.06 0.99 13
Jake Arrieta ChC – P 15 25 13 12 99% 98 11 0 107 1.74 0.98 10
Jon Lester ChC – P 15 73 18 55 98% 98 9 0 99 2.1 1 13
Chris Sale CWS – P 15 24 20 4 99% 105 12 0 102 2.83 0.99 11
Noah Syndergaard NYM – P 15 37 21 16 99% 91 8 0 110 2.08 0.99 12
José Fernández Mia – P 14 30 22 8 99% 87 9 0 125 2.36 0.99 9
Max Scherzer Was – P 16 15 29 -14 99% 107 8 0 138 3.52 1 11
Stephen Strasburg Was – P 14 38 30 8 99% 93 10 0 118 2.9 1.06 10
Julio Teherán Atl – P 16 164 41 123 86% 106 3 0 99 2.46 0.89 10
Steven Wright Bos – P 15 300 45 255 87% 103 8 0 84 2.18 1.14 12
John Lackey ChC – P 15 145 50 95 94% 98 7 0 102 3.29 1.04 12
Danny Salazar Cle – P 14 83 51 32 97% 86 9 0 99 2.4 1.15 8
Marco Estrada Tor – P 14 264 56 208 83% 93 5 0 84 2.7 0.98 11
Drew Pomeranz SD – P 15 307 62 245 80% 88 7 0 102 2.76 1.13 9
Corey Kluber Cle – P 15 36 63 -27 98% 102 7 0 103 3.59 1.01 9
Cole Hamels Tex – P 15 80 64 16 98% 96 8 0 95 2.79 1.22 11
Justin Verlander Det – P 15 122 68 54 94% 100 7 0 102 3.78 1.07 11
Zack Greinke Ari – P 16 42 69 -27 99% 107 10 0 89 3.61 1.15 10
Rich Hill Oak – P 11 301 71 230 82% 64 8 0 74 2.25 1.13 8
Colby Lewis Tex – P 15 317 73 244 37% 98 6 0 61 3.21 1.02 12
Masahiro Tanaka NYY – P 15 111 75 36 93% 98 5 0 75 3.01 1.03 10
Jason Hammel ChC – P 16 166 76 90 91% 81 7 0 67 2.55 1.08 8
Chris Tillman Bal – P 16 322 79 243 86% 94 10 0 88 3.52 1.21 9

wright

If Lester and Cueto have the bends, some of these guys are in real pain.  Several of these folks have jumped more than 200 spots to get here.  Among those who made the big jumps into the top 25 are pitchers you might have looked at as third, fourth or fifth starters on Draft Day.  Boston’s Steven Wright jumped 255 spots to #45 among current players. Colby Lewis, Drew Pomeranz and Chris Tillman all have surprised owners (and worse, non-owners) with outstanding leaps in the rankings

The REALLY Big Gainers

So, who has improved the most–and do we care?  We would hope so.  But, we need to stop and think about what improvement offers in terms of fantasy value.  Among the top 300 ranked pitchers in the MLB right now, the 25 who made the biggest jumps in the ranks since Opening Day are:

Table 5: Top 25 Gainers  in Rank Among  the Top 300 Pitchers

Pitchers GP Pre-
Season
Current change % Owned IP W SV K K9 ERA WHIP QS
Jeff Locke Pit – P 16 1130 337 793 4% 89 7 0 46 0.5 5.12 1.37 9
Matt Moore TB – P 15 1095 385 710 20% 89 3 0 84 0.9 5.04 1.37 6
Ricky Nolasco Min – P 15 1113 406 707 4% 91 3 0 74 0.8 4.95 1.35 6
Chris Rusin Col – P 12 1111 430 681 0% 54 2 0 39 0.7 4.12 1.34 3
Martín Pérez Tex – P 15 886 218 668 16% 90 6 0 45 0.5 3.57 1.39 10
Jonathon Niese Pit – P 15 1071 403 668 11% 87 6 0 63 0.7 4.93 1.48 7
Chad Bettis Col – P 15 1082 421 661 5% 84 6 0 66 0.8 5.44 1.46 7
Christian Friedrich SD – P 8 1028 370 658 9% 45 4 0 36 0.8 3.6 1.56 4
Kevin Gausman Bal – P 13 891 266 625 26% 75 1 0 69 0.9 3.93 1.27 7
Matt Wisler Atl – P 15 830 208 622 11% 89 3 1 61 0.7 4.22 1.22 10
Wade Miley Sea – P 13 1033 413 620 8% 76 6 0 58 0.8 5.28 1.38 4
Derek Holland Tex – P 14 1039 435 604 7% 72 5 0 43 0.6 5.2 1.42 7
Jered Weaver LAA – P 15 1088 484 604 6% 89 6 0 51 0.6 5.24 1.44 7
Mike Foltynewicz Atl – P 6 956 353 603 2% 33 2 0 28 0.8 3.51 1.26 3
Jon Gray Col – P 12 787 210 577 26% 69 4 0 75 1.1 4.8 1.23 8
Shane Greene Det – P 15 1055 483 572 2% 25 1 1 25 1 4.97 1.18 1
Mat Latos CWS – P 11 969 398 571 8% 60 6 0 32 0.5 4.62 1.46 5
Juan Nicasio Pit – P 13 1059 490 569 11% 63 5 0 65 1 5.83 1.48 4
Robbie Ray Ari – P 15 915 347 568 10% 80 4 0 93 1.2 4.59 1.54 6
Williams Pérez Atl – P 9 1031 472 559 0% 48 2 0 23 0.5 4.62 1.21 3
Nathan Eovaldi NYY – P 14 842 295 547 30% 80 6 0 70 0.9 5.02 1.35 6
Iván Nova NYY – P 15 1035 488 547 4% 64 5 1 44 0.7 5.18 1.38 2
Tom Koehler Mia – P 15 789 252 537 12% 84 6 0 71 0.8 4.07 1.49 8
Chase Anderson Mil – P 14 912 381 531 5% 73 4 0 60 0.8 5.13 1.28 4
Archie Bradley Ari – P 8 885 369 516 19% 46 3 0 49 1.1 4.5 1.37 3

None of these guys are lighting it up or have cracked the ranks of the top 100 pitchers.  Several have returned from injury, were marked as sleepers or as precocious young pitchers or are pitchers with skills who just can’t seem to get their act together. (E.g., Bradley, Wisler, Moore, Eovaldi, Miley, Holland).

What’s important to note is that in some cases, there is no place to go but up. Many of these guys might have gone undrafted or would have been dollar picks at the end of auction drafts.  In that respect, these guys all represent the value to be had at the end of your draft.  The average Opening Day ranking of these guys is 986Currently, they average 373.  That’s an incredible relative improvement in value even if none of these guys would be among your top three SP.

Closing Thoughts

Gray, JonMore to come on this stuff.  Macro level analysis such as this is designed to provide an overview of what’s going on in the league.  This won’t help you, nor is it necessary to, deal with a decision to take Keuchel as your #2 SP.  But, no doubt, if you look across your leagues, you can bet that the owners who are smiling are sitting on one or more of the biggest gainers.  Of course, they may also be sitting on the likes of Kershaw.  But everyone who has Kershaw or Sale or MadBum or Arrieta paid for them with a top draft pick or big bucks.  The guys in the last table won’t necessarily be the steals of the draft.  But they are the ones providing solid profit based on where or when you picked them up.  Wisler, Jon Gray and Perez, for example, currently rank among or above names like Chris Archer and Adam Wainwright.

More to come… Bet wishes.

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Our guests are Coach Andy Macuga and Bryan Luhrs. Andy is the Head Baseball Coach at Borrego Springs H.S. in southern California as well as a seasoned veteran in MLFS leagues. Bryan is the owner of Real Deal Dynasty Sports, and a writer with majorleaguefantasysports.com

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Unrepentant Red Sox fan and all things Boston. Deflategate was a joke. Boston Latin School is awesome. Harvard and Johns Hopkins alma maters… Besides that… Stanley D. and Nikki Waxberg Professor of Politics and Law at Washington and Lee University. Wrote for Ron Shandler’s Shandler Park for two summers and have been on board with MLFS since 2011. Been at Washington and Lee since 1990 with a brief hiatus (2010-2013) in the Middle East. Currently developing that last word in Fantasy Baseball analysis. Married to Flor, Dad to William and Alex, and adopted daughter Reem. Soon to be father and law to Meaghann. Alpha male to the world’s super-pup, Humphrey. Life is not bad.

5 Comments

5 Comments

  1. Joe Iannone

    June 27, 2016 at 10:29 pm

    I studied accounting (auditing specifically) under Professor Dr. David Semenza at Quinnipiac University in Hamden, CT around the early 2000’s. He had been a high profile partner with Ernst & Young, participating in the Disney IPO way back when and also spent a few years as a staff accountant on the road with the Rolling Stones. He is the only person on earth who can make accounting sound interesting. He got me my start in accounting after 20 years in Operations Management. I bring this up because when he would assign a research project, he knew I would turn over every stone. (no pun intended). On my final research paper, on the ENRON debacle, for which he gave me an A+, he made a written comment that my research and reporting was “exhaustive and thorough as always”. I never quite knew if that was really a complement or not, but i got the grade I needed. This article Mark, or should I say Professor Rush, was “Exhaustive and Thorough, As Always!!” My only issue with this is that Yahoo’s current rankings seem to be based on actual performance to date, is that correct? ESPN’s Tristan Cockroft does a top 250 which he updates throughout the season, but it is based on predicted performance for the rest of the season, not what is in the rear view mirror. Both are important for different reasons, but it would be interesting to compare your findings based on actuals to Cockroft’s predictions based on projections. Here is his June 24th update: http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/mlbranks_june22/clayton-kershaw-no-1-updated-fantasy-baseball-rankings-fantasy-baseball

    • Mark Rush

      June 28, 2016 at 3:37 pm

      Thanks for the feedback and kind thoughts. Rankings calculations can be based on a number of considerations. I like Cockroft’s predicted value model. We always face a challenge though: past performance is not a predictor of future income/activity. Remember, too that the preseason rankings were/are essentially predictors of performance. The current rankings are, then, a measure of the extent to which a player has deviated from that prediction.

      I’m looking to do some more comparative analysis over the 4th of July “break.” I’ll follow up.

      Best wishes!

      • Joe Iannone

        June 28, 2016 at 5:02 pm

        I think we as people love to rank things anyway. Keeps some kind of order in an otherwise fluid world. I guess that is why we keep on writing/ranking/analyzing even though we know we’ll never quite get to THE answer. Here’s to trying though. Cheers! In the meantime we also get to “play between the lines.” I look forward to you articles every Monday. Your style and depth of writing is unlike any I’ve seen in sports analysis. We must be fairly close in age as well, I always get your jokes. Ha. Later, Joe.

  2. Pingback: Mid-Season Baseball Analysis 2016 « Mark Rush

  3. Pingback: Moonlighting: Reflections on 2016 Baseball Analysis « Mark Rush

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