Hi Sports Fans! I’ve been on a bit of a hiatus. The Dog Days of summer take their toll on my kinda fantasy analysis. But, as we turn towards September and our football drafts, we can’t help but wonder…”What if?” So, I join the rising chorus of Monday morning quarterbacks who will now be reassessing draft strategies.
Yeah—who rose, who fell? Who burned me, who saved me? Today I take a look at the overall performance of players based on their preseason and current Yahoo! rankings. Not, though, that this is macro-level analysis. We could discuss particular players and look at individual data and stats. That’s all important stuff—for another column. For now, I offer an overview of league-wide trends.
How did the preseason Top 100 do? Batters and Pitchers
To begin, let’s just look at the top 100 batters and pitchers. As I’ve noted in prior columns, we can’t be too worried about the top players’ losing value or rank. If you are in the top 10, you have a lot more room to fall than you do to rise. So, if a player is within a few spots, plus or minus of your projected rank, no owner is going to complain. This is random variation.
There are hundreds of players to look at. These data and this analysis draw from the top 275 pitchers and batters currently ranked by Yahoo!. So, let’s turn first to the pre-season top 20 to see how our #1, $50 players have done.
Yahoo! Preseason Top 20 Batters
Batters | GP* | Pre-Season? | Current | gain(loss) | % Owned |
Mike Trout LAA – OF | 128 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 99% |
Paul Goldschmidt Ari – 1B | 128 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 99% |
Bryce Harper Was – OF ? | 119 | 3 | 45 | -42 | 99% |
Josh Donaldson Tor – 3B ? | 125 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 99% |
Miguel Cabrera Det – 1B | 127 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 99% |
Manny Machado Bal – 3B,SS | 124 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 99% |
Nolan Arenado Col – 3B ? | 127 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 99% |
Andrew McCutchen Pit – OF | 118 | 9 | 178 | -169 | 97% |
Carlos Correa Hou – SS ? | 125 | 10 | 61 | -51 | 99% |
Giancarlo Stanton Mia – OF | 103 | 11 | 150 | -139 | 71% |
Kris Bryant ChC – 3B,OF ? | 125 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 99% |
Anthony Rizzo ChC – 1B | 124 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 99% |
José Altuve Hou – 2B ? | 128 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 99% |
José Bautista Tor – OF | 83 | 16 | 279 | -263 | 95% |
Edwin Encarnación Tor – 1B | 127 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 99% |
José Abreu CWS – 1B | 125 | 18 | 137 | -119 | 96% |
Mookie Betts Bos – OF ? | 126 | 19 | 2 | 17 | 99% |
Dee Gordon Mia – 2B ? | 48 | 20 | 579 | -559 | 90% |
Buster Posey SF – C,1B | 115 | 21 | 106 | -85 | 99% |
A.J. Pollock Ari – OF ? | 2 | 22 | 1196 | -1174 | 81% |
FOUR hitters—Bryant, Altuve, Encarnacion and Betts–have held or gained value. Six (in italics) are within 10 ranks of their preseason spots and, therefore, probably are causing no one any pain (Trout, Goldschmidt, Donaldson, Machado, Arenado and Rizzo). The rest have plummeted. So, half of the top 20 hitters have kept or improved value. But, their relative gains are far and away outweighed by the double and triple digit drops among their counterparts in the Preseason Top 20.
Pitchers fared no better. Granted we have injuries here (as we did with Pollock among the batters). But, even accounting for that, the Top 20 Pitchers did not pay off.
Yahoo! Preseason Top 20 Pitchers
Pitchers | GP* | Pre-Season? | Current | gain(loss) | % Owned |
Clayton Kershaw LAD – P ? | 17 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 98% |
Max Scherzer Was – P ? | 27 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 99% |
Chris Sale CWS – P ? | 25 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 99% |
Jake Arrieta ChC – P ? | 25 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 99% |
Madison Bumgarner SF – P ? | 28 | 28 | 12 | 16 | 99% |
Jacob deGrom NYM – P | 24 | 29 | 99 | -70 | 98% |
José Fernández Mia – P ? | 24 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 99% |
Matt Harvey NYM – P | 17 | 34 | 543 | -509 | 42% |
Corey Kluber Cle – P | 26 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 98% |
Noah Syndergaard NYM – P | 26 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 99% |
Stephen Strasburg Was – P ? | 23 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 98% |
David Price Bos – P | 28 | 40 | 81 | -41 | 98% |
Zack Greinke Ari – P ? | 21 | 42 | 171 | -129 | 97% |
Gerrit Cole Pit – P ? | 20 | 44 | 247 | -203 | 93% |
Dallas Keuchel Hou – P ? | 26 | 48 | 192 | -144 | 93% |
Chris Archer TB – P | 27 | 50 | 155 | -105 | 96% |
Carlos Carrasco Cle – P ? | 21 | 57 | 97 | -40 | 97% |
Félix Hernández Sea – P | 18 | 61 | 145 | -84 | 97% |
Johnny Cueto SF – P | 26 | 65 | 32 | 33 | 99% |
Sonny Gray Oak – P | 21 | 67 | 800 | -733 | 58% |
SIX pitchers kept or gained value in ranks: Scherzer, Sale, Arrieta. Fernandez, Kluber and Cueto. Kershaw (despite his injury) and Syndergaard stayed within 10 spots. Strasburg just missed by falling 12 spots. But, overall, the top 20 pitchers cost their owners in terms of rank and value.
If you had it all to do again, there is no doubt that you would have drafted any o
f these guys back in March. Nonetheless, in retrospect, you hope that the value gained by your other draft picks would have offset the losses you took due to your early picks.
Top Gainers
In looking at the top gainers, it’s important to keep in mind, again, that there are ceilings that players will encounter. If you are ranked 40, you can’t jump 50 spots unless, you are passed by a bunch of folks (and you slip to, say 70, before rising up). Among the 275 highest ranked players, we are much more interested in the #250 player who moves up 200 spots than the #500-ranked player who moves equally. But, looking just at jumps, here are the top 20 batters.
Biggest Gainers among the 275 Highest Ranked Batters in Yahoo!
Batters | GP* | Pre-Season | Current? | gain(loss) | % Owned |
Gary Sánchez NYY – C | 21 | 1191 | 273 | 918 | 80% |
Sandy León Bos – C | 51 | 1172 | 280 | 892 | 43% |
Ryan Schimpf SD – 2B,3B | 60 | 1143 | 254 | 889 | 14% |
Matt Joyce Pit – OF | 109 | 1075 | 225 | 850 | 1% |
Trea Turner Was – 2B,OF | 40 | 1047 | 216 | 831 | 72% |
Robbie Grossman Min – OF | 76 | 1140 | 319 | 821 | 1% |
Hyun Soo Kim Bal – 1B,OF | 71 | 1206 | 387 | 819 | 3% |
Jeremy Hazelbaker StL – OF | 91 | 1181 | 365 | 816 | 5% |
Tommy Joseph Phi – 1B | 77 | 1138 | 326 | 812 | 4% |
David Dahl Col – OF | 31 | 1217 | 410 | 807 | 55% |
Rickie Weeks Jr. Ari – OF | 97 | 1192 | 401 | 791 | 0% |
Chris Herrmann Ari – C,OF | 54 | 1210 | 429 | 781 | 6% |
Tim Anderson CWS – SS | 66 | 1152 | 386 | 766 | 12% |
Keon Broxton Mil – OF | 59 | 1199 | 433 | 766 | 27% |
Willson Contreras ChC – C,OF | 57 | 1211 | 449 | 762 | 55% |
Sean Rodríguez Pit – 1B,2B,3B,SS,OF | 109 | 1061 | 311 | 750 | 2% |
Alex Dickerson SD – OF | 54 | 1215 | 469 | 746 | 9% |
Ryan Rua Tex – 1B,OF | 84 | 1174 | 438 | 736 | 1% |
Cheslor Cuthbert KC – 3B | 97 | 1045 | 310 | 735 | 7% |
Dae-Ho Lee Sea – 1B | 85 | 1189 | 459 | 730 | 1% |
Anyone who moves 800 or 900 spots was probably drafted for $1 or picked up on waivers. These guys are all midseason callus or injury replacements. Many, such as Sanchez, Cuthbert, etc. have probably not hit their ceiling yet. (In Sanchez’s case, we must be wary of his small sample size.) Their value lies in 2017 roster management. Will Moustakas recover? Is the Yankee catcher slot wide open? Is Leon Boston’s catcher of the future (or will all of these guys wake up and realize they are mortal)? Very few of these guys are owned in more than 50% of Yahoo! leagues as of 28 August. But, one wonders how they will fare in keeper leagues as teams start to organize for next season.
Biggest Gainers among the 275 Highest Ranked Pitchers in Yahoo!
Pitchers | GP* | Pre-Season | Current? | gain(loss) | % Owned | IP* |
Martín Pérez Tex – P | 27 | 1131 | 376 | 755 | 12% | 163.2 |
Chad Bettis Col – P | 26 | 1155 | 489 | 666 | 8% | 146.1 |
Matt Wisler Atl – P | 22 | 999 | 352 | 647 | 4% | 130 |
Bud Norris LAD – P | 32 | 1053 | 419 | 634 | 8% | 108.2 |
Ricky Nolasco LAA – P | 26 | 1178 | 563 | 615 | 2% | 154.2 |
Wade Miley Bal – P | 24 | 1151 | 565 | 586 | 8% | 134 |
Jorge De La Rosa Col – P | 23 | 1086 | 506 | 580 | 4% | 115 |
Chris Rusin Col – P | 19 | 1088 | 509 | 579 | 0% | 72 |
Miguel González CWS – P | 19 | 899 | 357 | 542 | 2% | 102.1 |
Chase Anderson Mil – P | 25 | 1023 | 501 | 522 | 5% | 119 |
Shane Greene Det – P | 37 | 1042 | 530 | 512 | 2% | 46.1 |
Colin Rea SD – P | 20 | 991 | 494 | 497 | 1% | 102.2 |
Derek Holland Tex – P | 15 | 936 | 461 | 475 | 10% | 78.2 |
Williams Pérez Atl – P | 9 | 984 | 528 | 456 | 0% | 48.2 |
Mat Latos Was – P | 11 | 916 | 480 | 436 | 5% | 60.1 |
CC Sabathia NYY – P | 23 | 616 | 274 | 342 | 17% | 137.1 |
Lucas Harrell Tex – P | 9 | 842 | 518 | 324 | 2% | 47 |
Blake Snell TB – P | 14 | 759 | 467 | 292 | 33% | 68.1 |
Severino Gonzalez Phi – P | 22 | 814 | 547 | 267 | 0% | 29.2 |
Rick Porcello Bos – P | 26 | 286 | 27 | 259 | 90% | 172.2 |
Pitchers show similar patterns. With the exception of Porcello (who was clearly an undervalued sleeper on draft day), NONE of the top 20 jumpers are owned in 50% of Yahoo! leagues or even crack the top 250 overall. Of course, Porcello started in the top 300 and is now a top 50 player. So, his jump matters as much for its magnitude as well as the point at which he started. Most of these guys will be also late season pickups in keeper leagues. In Porcello’s case, we see the importance of mid-round draft skills in identifying breakout players.
The current Top 20.
So, who paid real dividends? If we look at the top 20 players in Yahoo! as of 28 August, we see who paid off.
Top 20 Batters Ranked by Yahoo! as of 28 August
Batters | GP* | Pre-Season | Current? | gain(loss) | % Owned |
José Altuve Hou – 2B ? | 128 | 14 | 1 | 13 | 99% |
Mookie Betts Bos – OF ? | 126 | 19 | 2 | 17 | 99% |
Kris Bryant ChC – 3B,OF ? | 125 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 99% |
Mike Trout LAA – OF | 128 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 99% |
Daniel Murphy Was – 1B,2B,3B | 121 | 158 | 5 | 153 | 97% |
Josh Donaldson Tor – 3B ? | 125 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 99% |
David Ortiz Bos – 1B | 120 | 69 | 8 | 61 | 98% |
Nolan Arenado Col – 3B ? | 127 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 99% |
Paul Goldschmidt Ari – 1B | 128 | 2 | 10 | -8 | 99% |
Joey Votto Cin – 1B ? | 125 | 23 | 11 | 12 | 98% |
Edwin Encarnación Tor – 1B | 127 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 99% |
Charlie Blackmon Col – OF ? | 114 | 26 | 15 | 11 | 97% |
Manny Machado Bal – 3B,SS | 124 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 99% |
Anthony Rizzo ChC – 1B | 124 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 99% |
Ryan Braun Mil – OF | 108 | 45 | 20 | 25 | 98% |
Miguel Cabrera Det – 1B | 127 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 99% |
Corey Seager LAD – SS | 125 | 88 | 24 | 64 | 97% |
Brian Dozier Min – 2B | 124 | 76 | 28 | 48 | 95% |
Jonathan Villar Mil – 3B,SS | 124 | 300 | 30 | 270 | 88% |
DJ LeMahieu Col – 2B | 118 | 178 | 31 | 147 | 86% |
Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Villar and DJ LeMahieu paid extraordinary dividends. With the exception of LeMahieu and Villar, all of these guys are owned in virtually all leagues and 17/20 of them started out in the top 100. Many had Murphy penciled in for a solid season. But, anyone who picked up Villar or LeMahieu probably got them on the cheap.
Next 20 Batters Ranked by Yahoo! as of 28 August
Batters | GP* | Pre-Season | Current? | gain(loss) | % Owned |
Robinson Canó Sea – 2B | 128 | 55 | 33 | 22 | 99% |
Carlos González Col – OF | 119 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 98% |
Ian Desmond Tex – SS,OF | 128 | 130 | 35 | 95 | 95% |
Nelson Cruz Sea – OF | 125 | 35 | 36 | -1 | 98% |
Xander Bogaerts Bos – SS | 125 | 62 | 37 | 25 | 98% |
Freddie Freeman Atl – 1B | 128 | 68 | 39 | 29 | 93% |
Jean Segura Ari – 2B,SS | 123 | 205 | 40 | 165 | 92% |
Mark Trumbo Bal – 1B,OF | 128 | 220 | 41 | 179 | 95% |
Wil Myers SD – 1B,OF | 125 | 239 | 44 | 195 | 90% |
Bryce Harper Was – OF ? | 119 | 3 | 45 | -42 | 99% |
Evan Longoria TB – 3B | 126 | 121 | 46 | 75 | 94% |
Francisco Lindor Cle – SS ? | 127 | 101 | 47 | 54 | 96% |
George Springer Hou – OF | 129 | 27 | 48 | -21 | 98% |
Kyle Seager Sea – 3B | 125 | 84 | 51 | 33 | 95% |
Mike Napoli Cle – 1B,OF | 120 | 303 | 52 | 251 | 85% |
Starling Marte Pit – OF | 118 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 98% |
Trevor Story Col – SS | 97 | 232 | 54 | 178 | 46% |
Ian Kinsler Det – 2B | 125 | 89 | 55 | 34 | 97% |
Christian Yelich Mia – OF | 123 | 97 | 56 | 41 | 92% |
Dustin Pedroia Bos – 2B | 125 | 183 | 57 | 126 | 90% |
Carlos Correa Hou – SS ? | 125 | 10 | 61 | -51 | 99% |
The second 20 is where the real profits were made. Here, we see that 9 of the second 20 started outside of the top 100 and jumped into the top 40. Of course, these numbers breed hope as well as skepticism. Mike Napoli is playing with the house’s money. Anyone betting he repeats? Segura, Trumbo and Myers all benefited from fresh air. They were not exactly draft day steals.
Top 20 Pitchers Ranked by Yahoo! as of 28 August
Pitchers | GP* | Pre-Season | Current? | gain(loss) | % Owned | IP* |
Max Scherzer Was – P ? | 27 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 99% | 182 |
Madison Bumgarner SF – P ? | 28 | 28 | 12 | 16 | 99% | 180.2 |
Clayton Kershaw LAD – P ? | 17 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 98% | 121 |
Chris Sale CWS – P ? | 25 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 99% | 177.2 |
Justin Verlander Det – P | 27 | 122 | 19 | 103 | 95% | 181 |
Jake Arrieta ChC – P ? | 25 | 25 | 22 | 3 | 99% | 161.2 |
Corey Kluber Cle – P | 26 | 36 | 23 | 13 | 98% | 175.2 |
José Fernández Mia – P ? | 24 | 30 | 25 | 5 | 99% | 148.2 |
Kyle Hendricks ChC – P | 25 | 189 | 26 | 163 | 91% | 152 |
Rick Porcello Bos – P | 26 | 286 | 27 | 259 | 90% | 172.2 |
Jon Lester ChC – P | 25 | 73 | 29 | 44 | 99% | 154 |
Johnny Cueto SF – P | 26 | 65 | 32 | 33 | 99% | 179.2 |
Noah Syndergaard NYM – P | 26 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 99% | 155 |
José Quintana CWS – P | 26 | 137 | 42 | 95 | 93% | 172.1 |
Cole Hamels Tex – P | 26 | 80 | 43 | 37 | 98% | 168.2 |
J.A. Happ Tor – P | 25 | 299 | 49 | 250 | 89% | 155.1 |
Stephen Strasburg Was – P ? | 23 | 38 | 50 | -12 | 98% | 145.1 |
Masahiro Tanaka NYY – P | 26 | 111 | 58 | 53 | 94% | 168 |
Danny Duffy KC – P | 36 | 301 | 59 | 242 | 88% | 143.2 |
John Lackey ChC – P | 24 | 145 | 60 | 85 | 90% | 158.1 |
Among pitchers, we see similar, but larger top 20 patterns. Five of the current top pitchers jumped 100 spots or more and eight of them started outside the top 100.
Next 20 Pitchers Ranked by Yahoo! as of 28 August
Pitchers | GP* | Pre-Season | Current? | gain(loss) | % Owned | IP* |
Tanner Roark Was – P | 27 | 309 | 63 | 246 | 84% | 168.1 |
Aarón Sánchez Tor – P | 24 | 305 | 64 | 241 | 77% | 156.1 |
Drew Pomeranz Bos – P | 25 | 302 | 66 | 236 | 87% | 146.1 |
Kenta Maeda LAD – P | 27 | 207 | 73 | 134 | 89% | 141.2 |
Kenley Jansen LAD – P | 57 | 78 | 76 | 2 | 98% | 55.1 |
Michael Fulmer Det – P | 21 | 308 | 78 | 230 | 87% | 130.2 |
David Price Bos – P | 28 | 40 | 81 | -41 | 98% | 183.2 |
Jason Hammel ChC – P | 30 | 166 | 83 | 83 | 89% | 140 |
Carlos Martínez StL – P ? | 24 | 117 | 84 | 33 | 93% | 152.1 |
Steven Wright Bos – P | 23 | 315 | 90 | 225 | 81% | 152.2 |
Zach Britton Bal – P | 55 | 110 | 93 | 17 | 96% | 52 |
Andrew Miller Cle – P | 54 | 167 | 94 | 73 | 91% | 57 |
Rich Hill LAD – P | 15 | 304 | 95 | 209 | 83% | 82 |
Carlos Carrasco Cle – P ? | 21 | 57 | 97 | -40 | 97% | 128 |
Jacob deGrom NYM – P | 24 | 29 | 99 | -70 | 98% | 143 |
Dan Straily Cin – P | 27 | 330 | 101 | 229 | 56% | 151.1 |
Marco Estrada Tor – P | 22 | 264 | 109 | 155 | 80% | 137.1 |
Chris Tillman Bal – P | 26 | 349 | 111 | 238 | 77% | 153 |
Ian Kennedy KC – P | 26 | 238 | 113 | 125 | 72% | 153.2 |
Julio Teherán Atl – P | 23 | 164 | 119 | 45 | 81% | 145.2 |
Steven Matz NYM – P | 22 | 134 | 120 | 14 | 86% | 132.1 |
Once again—as with the batters–we find tremendous dividends in the second 20. Sixteen of the second 20 started outside of the top 100. Eleven of these pitchers jumped at least 100 spots.
Hitters, Pitchers and Draft Strategy.
What we see here is the importance of betting on playing time with regard to batters. Whereas the biggest jumpers among batters have not come close to full season stats, the best payoffs among batters ho jumped into the top 40 came from players who have played, essentially a full season. These guys either broke out or recovered from injury.
Among pitchers, we need to look at more data. With the exception of RP, there is not much variance in IP among the top 40 SP. So, these guys were already in rotations for the most part. The key here is to have looked at trends in DIPS or other data that indicate that a SP has been plagued by bad luck despite having a solid skill set. So, you look for the next Rick Porcello or, next year, snap up a Chris Archer clone.
As we collect firewood for our hot stoves, we can prepare to spend our winters torturing data. But, a couple of things are clear, IMHO. First, SP are a better source of investment than batters. All those batters who jumped through the ranks like Spiderman would have sat on your bench until the All-Star Break (more or less). A majority of the SP who skyrocketed have pitched better than 100 innings. Granted, many may still be #4 or #5 SP. But, their value on a $1 bet is beyond question and they’ve been collecting Ks for most of the season.
You are clearly more likely to assemble your starting lineup on draft day. Barring injury, you are not going to find much waiver wire help unless the next Carlos Correa manages to go undrafted. But, there is pitching help among free agents and waivers. The option to stream SP gives you an opportunity that you do not have with your everyday batters. Once you set your top 2 or 3 SP, you can afford to risk dollar picks and streaming. Your batters won’t allow you that luxury.
So, best wishes. It’s been a ball writing columns and editing for MLFS. How many shopping days till Pitchers and Catchers report? When’s your 2017 draft? Is Todd Gurley still available…? Oh never mind. Wait till next year…
Best wishes to all.

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