September Studs and Duds: The Mad Prof. Remembers Draft Day

Hi Sports Fans!  I’ve been on a bit of a hiatus.   The Dog Days of summer take their toll on my kinda fantasy analysis.  But, as we turn towards September and our football drafts, we can’t help but wonder…”What if?”  So, I join the rising chorus of Monday morning quarterbacks who will now be reassessing draft strategies.

Yeah—who rose, who fell?  Who burned me, who saved me?  Today I take a look at the overall performance of players based on their preseason and current Yahoo! rankings.  Not, though, that this is macro-level analysis.  We could discuss particular players and look at individual data and stats.  That’s all important stuff—for another column.  For now, I offer an overview of league-wide trends.

 

How did the preseason Top 100 do?  Batters and Pitchers

To begin, let’s just look at the top 100 batters and pitchers.  As I’ve noted in prior columns, we can’t be too worried about the top players’ losing value or rank.  If you are in the top 10, you have a lot more room to fall than you do to rise.   So, if a player is within a few spots, plus or minus of your projected rank, no owner is going to complain.   This is random variation.

There are hundreds of players to look at.  These data and this analysis draw from the top 275 pitchers and batters currently ranked by Yahoo!.  So, let’s turn first to the pre-season top 20 to see how our #1, $50 players have done.

 

Yahoo! Preseason Top 20 Batters

Batters	GP*	Pre-Season?	Current	gain(loss)	% Owned
Mike Trout LAA – OF	128	1	4	-3	99%
Paul Goldschmidt Ari – 1B	128	2	10	-8	99%
Bryce Harper Was – OF ?	119	3	45	-42	99%
Josh Donaldson Tor – 3B ?	125	5	6	-1	99%
Miguel Cabrera Det – 1B	127	6	21	-15	99%
Manny Machado Bal – 3B,SS	124	7	16	-9	99%
Nolan Arenado Col – 3B ?	127	8	9	-1	99%
Andrew McCutchen Pit – OF	118	9	178	-169	97%
Carlos Correa Hou – SS ?	125	10	61	-51	99%
Giancarlo Stanton Mia – OF	103	11	150	-139	71%
Kris Bryant ChC – 3B,OF ?	125	12	3	9	99%
Anthony Rizzo ChC – 1B	124	13	17	-4	99%
José Altuve Hou – 2B ?	128	14	1	13	99%
José Bautista Tor – OF	83	16	279	-263	95%
Edwin Encarnación Tor – 1B	127	17	13	4	99%
José Abreu CWS – 1B	125	18	137	-119	96%
Mookie Betts Bos – OF ?	126	19	2	17	99%
Dee Gordon Mia – 2B ?	48	20	579	-559	90%
Buster Posey SF – C,1B	115	21	106	-85	99%
A.J. Pollock Ari – OF ?	2	22	1196	-1174	81%

 

FOUR hitters—Bryant, Altuve, Encarnacion and Betts–have held or gained value.  Six (in italics)  are within 10 ranks of their preseason spots and, therefore, probably are causing no one any pain (Trout, Goldschmidt, Donaldson, Machado, Arenado and Rizzo).  The rest have plummeted.  So, half of the top 20 hitters have kept or improved value. But, their relative gains are far and away outweighed by the double and triple digit drops among their counterparts in the Preseason  Top 20.

Pitchers fared no better.  Granted we have injuries here (as we did with Pollock among the batters).  But, even accounting for that, the Top 20 Pitchers did not pay off.

 

Yahoo! Preseason Top 20 Pitchers

Pitchers	GP*	Pre-Season?	Current	gain(loss)	% Owned
Clayton Kershaw LAD – P ?	17	4	14	-10	98%
Max Scherzer Was – P ?	27	15	7	8	99%
Chris Sale CWS – P ?	25	24	18	6	99%
Jake Arrieta ChC – P ?	25	25	22	3	99%
Madison Bumgarner SF – P ?	28	28	12	16	99%
Jacob deGrom NYM – P	24	29	99	-70	98%
José Fernández Mia – P ?	24	30	25	5	99%
Matt Harvey NYM – P	17	34	543	-509	42%
Corey Kluber Cle – P	26	36	23	13	98%
Noah Syndergaard NYM – P	26	37	38	-1	99%
Stephen Strasburg Was – P ?	23	38	50	-12	98%
David Price Bos – P	28	40	81	-41	98%
Zack Greinke Ari – P ?	21	42	171	-129	97%
Gerrit Cole Pit – P ?	20	44	247	-203	93%
Dallas Keuchel Hou – P ?	26	48	192	-144	93%
Chris Archer TB – P	27	50	155	-105	96%
Carlos Carrasco Cle – P ?	21	57	97	-40	97%
Félix Hernández Sea – P	18	61	145	-84	97%
Johnny Cueto SF – P	26	65	32	33	99%
Sonny Gray Oak – P	21	67	800	-733	58%

 

 

SIX pitchers kept or gained value in ranks:  Scherzer, Sale, Arrieta. Fernandez, Kluber and Cueto.  Kershaw (despite his injury) and Syndergaard stayed within 10 spots. Strasburg just missed by falling 12 spots.  But, overall, the top 20 pitchers cost their owners in terms of rank and value.

If you had it all to do again, there is no doubt that you would have drafted any o
f these guys back in March.  Nonetheless, in retrospect, you hope that the value gained by your other draft picks would have offset the losses you took due to your early picks.

 

Top Gainers

In looking at the top gainers, it’s important to keep in mind, again, that there are ceilings that players will encounter.  If you are ranked 40, you can’t jump 50 spots unless, you are passed by a bunch of folks (and you slip to, say 70, before rising up). Among the 275 highest ranked players, we are much more interested in the #250 player who moves up 200 spots than the #500-ranked player who moves equally.  But, looking just at jumps, here are the top 20 batters.

 

Biggest Gainers among the 275 Highest Ranked Batters in Yahoo!

Batters	GP*	Pre-Season	Current?	gain(loss)	% Owned
Gary Sánchez NYY – C	21	1191	273	918	80%
Sandy León Bos – C	51	1172	280	892	43%
Ryan Schimpf SD – 2B,3B	60	1143	254	889	14%
Matt Joyce Pit – OF	109	1075	225	850	1%
Trea Turner Was – 2B,OF	40	1047	216	831	72%
Robbie Grossman Min – OF	76	1140	319	821	1%
Hyun Soo Kim Bal – 1B,OF	71	1206	387	819	3%
Jeremy Hazelbaker StL – OF	91	1181	365	816	5%
Tommy Joseph Phi – 1B	77	1138	326	812	4%
David Dahl Col – OF	31	1217	410	807	55%
Rickie Weeks Jr. Ari – OF	97	1192	401	791	0%
Chris Herrmann Ari – C,OF	54	1210	429	781	6%
Tim Anderson CWS – SS	66	1152	386	766	12%
Keon Broxton Mil – OF	59	1199	433	766	27%
Willson Contreras ChC – C,OF	57	1211	449	762	55%
Sean Rodríguez Pit – 1B,2B,3B,SS,OF	109	1061	311	750	2%
Alex Dickerson SD – OF	54	1215	469	746	9%
Ryan Rua Tex – 1B,OF	84	1174	438	736	1%
Cheslor Cuthbert KC – 3B	97	1045	310	735	7%
Dae-Ho Lee Sea – 1B	85	1189	459	730	1%

Anyone who moves 800 or 900 spots was probably drafted for $1 or picked up on waivers.  These guys are all midseason callus or injury replacements.  Many, such as Sanchez, Cuthbert, etc. have probably not hit their ceiling yet.  (In Sanchez’s case, we must be wary of his small sample size.) Their value lies in 2017 roster management.  Will Moustakas recover?  Is the Yankee catcher slot wide open?  Is Leon Boston’s catcher of the future (or will all of these guys wake up and realize they are mortal)?  Very few of these guys are owned in more than 50% of Yahoo! leagues as of 28 August.  But, one wonders how they will fare in keeper leagues as teams start to organize for next season.

 

Biggest Gainers among the 275 Highest Ranked Pitchers in Yahoo!

Pitchers	GP*	Pre-Season	Current?	gain(loss)	% Owned	IP*
Martín Pérez Tex – P	27	1131	376	755	12%	163.2
Chad Bettis Col – P	26	1155	489	666	8%	146.1
Matt Wisler Atl – P	22	999	352	647	4%	130
Bud Norris LAD – P	32	1053	419	634	8%	108.2
Ricky Nolasco LAA – P	26	1178	563	615	2%	154.2
Wade Miley Bal – P	24	1151	565	586	8%	134
Jorge De La Rosa Col – P	23	1086	506	580	4%	115
Chris Rusin Col – P	19	1088	509	579	0%	72
Miguel González CWS – P	19	899	357	542	2%	102.1
Chase Anderson Mil – P	25	1023	501	522	5%	119
Shane Greene Det – P	37	1042	530	512	2%	46.1
Colin Rea SD – P	20	991	494	497	1%	102.2
Derek Holland Tex – P	15	936	461	475	10%	78.2
Williams Pérez Atl – P	9	984	528	456	0%	48.2
Mat Latos Was – P	11	916	480	436	5%	60.1
CC Sabathia NYY – P	23	616	274	342	17%	137.1
Lucas Harrell Tex – P	9	842	518	324	2%	47
Blake Snell TB – P	14	759	467	292	33%	68.1
Severino Gonzalez Phi – P	22	814	547	267	0%	29.2
Rick Porcello Bos – P	26	286	27	259	90%	172.2

 

Pitchers show similar patterns.  With the exception of Porcello (who was clearly an undervalued sleeper on draft day), NONE of the top 20 jumpers are owned in 50% of Yahoo! leagues or even crack the top 250 overall. Of course, Porcello started in the top 300 and is now a top 50 player. So, his jump matters as much for its magnitude as well as the point at which he started.  Most of these guys will be also late season pickups in keeper leagues.  In Porcello’s case, we see the importance of mid-round draft skills in identifying breakout players.

 

The current Top 20.

So, who paid real dividends?  If we look at the top 20 players in Yahoo! as of 28 August, we see who paid off.

Top 20 Batters Ranked by Yahoo! as of 28 August

Batters	GP*	Pre-Season	Current?	gain(loss)	% Owned
José Altuve Hou – 2B ?	128	14	1	13	99%
Mookie Betts Bos – OF ?	126	19	2	17	99%
Kris Bryant ChC – 3B,OF ?	125	12	3	9	99%
Mike Trout LAA – OF	128	1	4	-3	99%
Daniel Murphy Was – 1B,2B,3B	121	158	5	153	97%
Josh Donaldson Tor – 3B ?	125	5	6	-1	99%
David Ortiz Bos – 1B	120	69	8	61	98%
Nolan Arenado Col – 3B ?	127	8	9	-1	99%
Paul Goldschmidt Ari – 1B	128	2	10	-8	99%
Joey Votto Cin – 1B ?	125	23	11	12	98%
Edwin Encarnación Tor – 1B	127	17	13	4	99%
Charlie Blackmon Col – OF ?	114	26	15	11	97%
Manny Machado Bal – 3B,SS	124	7	16	-9	99%
Anthony Rizzo ChC – 1B	124	13	17	-4	99%
Ryan Braun Mil – OF	108	45	20	25	98%
Miguel Cabrera Det – 1B	127	6	21	-15	99%
Corey Seager LAD – SS	125	88	24	64	97%
Brian Dozier Min – 2B	124	76	28	48	95%
Jonathan Villar Mil – 3B,SS	124	300	30	270	88%
DJ LeMahieu Col – 2B	118	178	31	147	86%

Daniel Murphy, Jonathan Villar and DJ LeMahieu paid extraordinary dividends. With the exception of LeMahieu and Villar, all of these guys are owned in virtually all leagues and 17/20 of them started out in the top 100. Many had Murphy penciled in for a solid season.  But, anyone who picked up Villar or LeMahieu probably got them on the cheap.

 

Next 20 Batters Ranked by Yahoo! as of 28 August

Batters	GP*	Pre-Season	Current?	gain(loss)	% Owned
Robinson Canó Sea – 2B	128	55	33	22	99%
Carlos González Col – OF	119	46	34	12	98%
Ian Desmond Tex – SS,OF	128	130	35	95	95%
Nelson Cruz Sea – OF	125	35	36	-1	98%
Xander Bogaerts Bos – SS	125	62	37	25	98%
Freddie Freeman Atl – 1B	128	68	39	29	93%
Jean Segura Ari – 2B,SS	123	205	40	165	92%
Mark Trumbo Bal – 1B,OF	128	220	41	179	95%
Wil Myers SD – 1B,OF	125	239	44	195	90%
Bryce Harper Was – OF ?	119	3	45	-42	99%
Evan Longoria TB – 3B	126	121	46	75	94%
Francisco Lindor Cle – SS ?	127	101	47	54	96%
George Springer Hou – OF	129	27	48	-21	98%
Kyle Seager Sea – 3B	125	84	51	33	95%
Mike Napoli Cle – 1B,OF	120	303	52	251	85%
Starling Marte Pit – OF	118	33	53	-20	98%
Trevor Story Col – SS	97	232	54	178	46%
Ian Kinsler Det – 2B	125	89	55	34	97%
Christian Yelich Mia – OF	123	97	56	41	92%
Dustin Pedroia Bos – 2B	125	183	57	126	90%
Carlos Correa Hou – SS ?	125	10	61	-51	99%

 

The second 20 is where the real profits were made.  Here, we see that 9 of the second 20 started outside of the top 100 and jumped into the top 40.  Of course, these numbers breed hope as well as skepticism.  Mike Napoli is playing with the house’s money. Anyone betting he repeats?  Segura, Trumbo and Myers all benefited from fresh air.  They were not exactly draft day steals.

 

Top 20 Pitchers Ranked by Yahoo! as of 28 August

Pitchers	GP*	Pre-Season	Current?	gain(loss)	% Owned	IP*
Max Scherzer Was – P ?	27	15	7	8	99%	182
Madison Bumgarner SF – P ?	28	28	12	16	99%	180.2
Clayton Kershaw LAD – P ?	17	4	14	-10	98%	121
Chris Sale CWS – P ?	25	24	18	6	99%	177.2
Justin Verlander Det – P	27	122	19	103	95%	181
Jake Arrieta ChC – P ?	25	25	22	3	99%	161.2
Corey Kluber Cle – P	26	36	23	13	98%	175.2
José Fernández Mia – P ?	24	30	25	5	99%	148.2
Kyle Hendricks ChC – P	25	189	26	163	91%	152
Rick Porcello Bos – P	26	286	27	259	90%	172.2
Jon Lester ChC – P	25	73	29	44	99%	154
Johnny Cueto SF – P	26	65	32	33	99%	179.2
Noah Syndergaard NYM – P	26	37	38	-1	99%	155
José Quintana CWS – P	26	137	42	95	93%	172.1
Cole Hamels Tex – P	26	80	43	37	98%	168.2
J.A. Happ Tor – P	25	299	49	250	89%	155.1
Stephen Strasburg Was – P ?	23	38	50	-12	98%	145.1
Masahiro Tanaka NYY – P	26	111	58	53	94%	168
Danny Duffy KC – P	36	301	59	242	88%	143.2
John Lackey ChC – P	24	145	60	85	90%	158.1

Among pitchers, we see similar, but larger top 20 patterns. Five of the current top pitchers jumped 100 spots or more and eight of them started outside the top 100.

 

Next 20 Pitchers Ranked by Yahoo! as of 28 August

Pitchers	GP*	Pre-Season	Current?	gain(loss)	% Owned	IP*
Tanner Roark Was – P	27	309	63	246	84%	168.1
Aarón Sánchez Tor – P	24	305	64	241	77%	156.1
Drew Pomeranz Bos – P	25	302	66	236	87%	146.1
Kenta Maeda LAD – P	27	207	73	134	89%	141.2
Kenley Jansen LAD – P	57	78	76	2	98%	55.1
Michael Fulmer Det – P	21	308	78	230	87%	130.2
David Price Bos – P	28	40	81	-41	98%	183.2
Jason Hammel ChC – P	30	166	83	83	89%	140
Carlos Martínez StL – P ?	24	117	84	33	93%	152.1
Steven Wright Bos – P	23	315	90	225	81%	152.2
Zach Britton Bal – P	55	110	93	17	96%	52
Andrew Miller Cle – P	54	167	94	73	91%	57
Rich Hill LAD – P	15	304	95	209	83%	82
Carlos Carrasco Cle – P ?	21	57	97	-40	97%	128
Jacob deGrom NYM – P	24	29	99	-70	98%	143
Dan Straily Cin – P	27	330	101	229	56%	151.1
Marco Estrada Tor – P	22	264	109	155	80%	137.1
Chris Tillman Bal – P	26	349	111	238	77%	153
Ian Kennedy KC – P	26	238	113	125	72%	153.2
Julio Teherán Atl – P	23	164	119	45	81%	145.2
Steven Matz NYM – P	22	134	120	14	86%	132.1

 

Once again—as with the batters–we find tremendous dividends in the second 20.  Sixteen of the second 20 started outside of the top 100. Eleven of these pitchers jumped at least 100 spots.

 

Hitters, Pitchers and Draft Strategy.

What we see here is the importance of betting on playing time with regard to batters. Whereas the biggest jumpers among batters have not come close to full season stats, the best payoffs among batters ho jumped into the top 40 came from players who have played, essentially a full season.  These guys either broke out or recovered from injury.

Among pitchers, we need to look at more data.  With the exception of RP, there is not much variance in IP among the top 40 SP.  So, these guys were already in rotations for the most part.  The key here is to have looked at trends in DIPS or other data that indicate that a SP has been plagued by bad luck despite having a solid skill set.  So, you look for the next Rick Porcello or, next year, snap up a Chris Archer clone.

As we collect firewood for our hot stoves, we can prepare to spend our winters torturing data.  But, a couple of things are clear, IMHO.  First, SP are a better source of investment than batters.  All those batters who jumped through the ranks like Spiderman would have sat on your bench until the All-Star Break (more or less). A majority of the SP who skyrocketed have pitched better than 100 innings.  Granted, many may still be #4 or #5 SP.  But, their value on a $1 bet is beyond question and they’ve been collecting Ks for most of the season.

You are clearly more likely to assemble your starting lineup on draft day.  Barring injury, you are not going to find much waiver wire help unless the next Carlos Correa manages to go undrafted.   But, there is pitching help among free agents and waivers.  The option to stream SP gives you an opportunity that you do not have with your everyday batters.  Once you set your top 2 or 3 SP, you can afford to risk dollar picks and streaming.  Your batters won’t allow you that luxury.

So, best wishes.  It’s been a ball  writing columns and  editing for MLFS.  How many shopping days till Pitchers and Catchers report?  When’s your 2017 draft?  Is Todd Gurley still available…?  Oh never mind.  Wait till next year…

Best wishes to all.